8.31 The growth of the commuter traffic by suburban services has always outpaced the inter-city traffic. Thus, it recorded an average annual expansion of 4.6 per cent (passenger) and 5.8 per cent (passenger kms.). In 1970s, the growth accelerated at 5.2 per cent (passengers) and 5.9 per cent (passengers kilometres). In the Sixth Plan period these trends weakened and there was a marginal increase in numbers; the passenger kilometres increasing annually by 2.7 per cent.
8.32 The decline in passenger traffic, both suburban and non- suburban in the recent years is mainly attributable to the rationalisation of fare structure designed, inter alia, to discourage short distance travel by rail.
8.33 In the Sixth Plan against an outlay of Rs. 5100 crores, the expenditure was around Rs. 6573 crores. As for the implementation of the Plan, the performance during the years 1981-82 and 1982-83, in particular, was creditable and set pace for future development. With the wagon fleet unchanged in numbers, 47 million tonnes of additional traffic was carried. Target utilisation norms were not only achieved but were higher than the targets in the case of wagon utilisation. Overaged wagons which had plagued the system were phased out. Fares and freight rates were rationalised and brought more or less in line with costs. Contribution to Depreciation Reserve Fund was substantially stepped up from Rs. 125 crores in the Fifth Plan to Rs. 850 crores in the later years of the Sixth Plan. However, in the last two years of the Plan, plan
205
priorities were somewhat distorted as the Railways introduced a large number of passenger trains leading to diversion of motive power capacity to passenger services and erosion of freight movement capacity on critical sections.
8.34 The position in respect of procurement of rolling stock, track renewals and electrification during the Sixth plan is resumed in Table 8.5
TABLE 8.5
Rolling stock acquisition, Track Renewals and Electrification in the
Sixth Plan
Target Anticipated
1. Procurement of rolling stock
(a) Wagons (lakh in 4 wheeler equivalent) 1.00 0.72
(b) Locomotives (Nos.) 780 950
(c) Coaches (Nos.) 5680 5000
(d) Electrical Multiple Units (Nos.) 606 690
2. Track Renewals (Kms.) 14000 9200
3. Electrification (Kms.) 2800 1522
8.35 In order to reconcile resource constraints and operational needs, the procurement of locomotive was stepped up but the procurement of wagons and coaches had to be curtailed. The physical targets for track renewals could not be achieved in spite of substantial step up in the outlays from Rs. 500 crores to Rs. 1075 crores in the Plan, mainly due to steep increase in the input prices, particularly in case of steel. The electrification programme, too, could not be achieved in full because of inadequate funding.
8.36 The Sixth Plan envisaged demand for rail freight transport at around 309 originating million tonnes/220 billion tonne kilometres. In the mid-term review this target was revised to 280-285 million tonnes, further reduced to 270 million tonnes at the time of formulation of Annual Plan, on the basis of capacity available with the Railways.
8.37 The rail transport capacity had from time to time lagged behind the requirements of the economy in the past mainly on account of inadequate investments. This fact had been highlighted by three high powered committees, the National Transport Policy Committee, the Rail Tariff Enquiry Committee and the Railway Reforms Committee. Several indicators point towards persisting under-investment in the Railways. One such indicator, for example, is the ageing of fixed assets of the system. Another is the capacity constraints experienced on critical routes. As a consequence of insufficient investments, replacement of overaged assets now accounts for a large share of the total plan outlays. Besides, substantial funds are consumed by projects which do not directly generate new transport capacity, like most of the new lines, or metropolitan transport projects. For instance, in the Sixth Plan only 30 per cent of the total outlay was utilised for capacity generating projects, a substantially smaller share than the previous Plans.
Demand for rail transport during the Seventh Plan 8.38 The demand for rail freight traffic has been fixed around 340 million tonnes (originating traffic) for 1989-90 on the basis of inter-sectoral consistency exercises. The approximate product mix of projected demand is given in Table 8.6.
TABLE: 8.6
Demand for freight Traffic
1984-85 1989-90
Commodity Originating % age of Originating % age of
Tonnes total traffic Tonnes total traffic
(Million) (Million)
1. Integrated Steel Plants
(i) Finished Products from steel
plants (Pig-iron for sale and mild
steel) 8.2 3.1 11.0 3.2
(ii) Raw material for steel plants
other than coal 22.6 8.6 28.0 8.2
Total 30.8 11.7 39.0 11.4
2. Coal 101.9 38.5 152.0 44.7
3. Iron Ore for export 11.1 4.2 12.0 3.5
4. Cement 16.9 6.4 23.0 6.8
5. Foodgrains 20.7 7.8 24.0 7.1
6. Fertilizers 12.2 4.6 15.0 4.4
7. POL products 18.2 6.9 22.0 6.5
8. Other goods 34.9 13.2 38.0 11.2
9. Railway materials 17.7 6.7 15.0 4.4
Grand Total 264.4 100.0 340.0 100.0
206
8.39 Compared to the traffic in 1984-85, substantial increase is expected in the movement of coal, from around 102 million tonnes in 1984-85 to 152 million tonnes in 1989-90. The major increase in the demand for coal is expected from the thermal power stations. Increase in traffic would also be generated by steel plants, cement, foodgrains and petroleum products. It will, however, become necessary to review the position at the time of formulation of the Annual Plans on the basis of development of the major sectors contributing to demand for rail freight services.
Passenger Traffic 8.40 Given the scarcity of resources and priority to be accorded to freight traffic,it will be necessary for the Railways to contain the demand for passenger traffic with the aid of an appropriate pricing policy. For the Seventh Plan, therefore, increase in non- suburban passenger traffic is assumed at 2 per cent per annum only. Bulk of this increase, relates to long distance travel, as the policy of shedding short-distance traffic would be vigorously pursued. In the case of suburban traffic the major thrust would be to reduce excessive overcrowding on commuter services and to cater to only minimal increase in traffic.
Capacity Available 8.41 At the end of the Sixth Five Year Plan the Railways had a capacity to carry around 275 million tonnes of originating freight traffic on the basis of the targetted norm of wagon utilisation. The capacity assessment of the system necessarily has to contend with certain inherent characteristics of this mode of transport. Common physical assets are made use of to provide different types of transport services like freight and passenger and any change in the mix alters the output of the system. Again, a considerable portion of the assets is location specific and can not be transferred in keeping with the changes in demand for services.
8.42 The capacity of the railway system would be developed to deal with the projected level of traffic. The need for additional funds to create matching capacity would be reviewed at the time of Annual Plans. In fact the outlays for the Railways will be kept under continuous review so as to ensure that transport bottlenecks do not hamper the growth of the national economy.
State of the System 8.43 Before specifically taking up the Seventh Plan, it would be useful to have a synoptic view of the present state of the system, which is outlined below:
(i) Transport capacity has now reached a plateau and additional output is possible only on the basis of adequate investments to increase capacity and improve productivity. Huge arrears of replacement of overaged assets have accumulated. There is a very large portfolio of ongoing projects and many of them will not add to the capacity in the required areas. The rolling stock designs are outmoded and maintenance practices in several areas are based on obsolete technology. The system is beset with excess manpower and manpower development has not kept pace with technology upgradation. The precentage of ineffective rolling stock far exceeds prescribed levels' Above all maintenance infrastructure is inadequate in relation to the available rolling stock fleet.
(ii) Bulk of the freight and passenger traffic is concentrated on the quadrilateral formed by the four metropolitan cities and their diagonals. Thus, 15000 Kms. constitute heavily travelled routes over which average traffic density exceeds 20 million gross tonne Kms. per route kilometre per year. Moreover, incremental traffic has taken place mainly on these sections. The future origin- destination pattern is unlikely to deviate significantly from this trend.
(iii) The Railways ability to generate their own resources for growth and replacement has not shown any improvement. In fact, increasingly higher operating ratios are a matter of concern.
8.44 Given the above scenario the solutions may have to be found along the following lines:-
(i) Replacement of Overaged Assets: The magnitude and scale of the replacements are such as cannot conceivably, be rectified within the next Plan period. A phased programme will accordingly be worked out. Moreover, replacement and modernisation would be dovetailed.
(ii) Modernisation and Technological Upgradation: There is a preponderence of obsolete assets and outmoded technology in the Railways. The immediate concern would, therefore, be to modernise the present network and upgrade it to meet present and future demands. With the adoption of advanced technologies, it should be possible to make railways faster, safer and cheaper to maintain. Modernisation of the track structure and geometry to take higher axle loads and reduction in the renewal cycle would be pursued through a phased programme with priority accorded to the main trunk routes particularly in sections where track renewals are visualised in the Plan. Electrification programme would be carried out on high density routes on continuous network basis. Simultaneously, these sections would be upgraded to sustain heavier and speedier trains so as to get full benefit from electrification. Real-time
207
operation information system would be introduced on the basis of latest technology advancement in this field. The communication network would be developed and the system k3design would be determined with a long-term perspective in view and to the extent feasible, integrated with the national communication network. Use of solid state in interlocking systems and computer-controlled systems in signalling are some of the areas of immense potential and possibilities and their adoption would be pursued. Introduction of heavy duty freight trains of 4500-9000 tonnes would be given priority and necessary infrastructure would be developed on indentified routes. Passenger service operations would be upgraded and modernised with emphasis on fast inter-city services, an area where the Railways are the best suited transport mode. Satellite passenger terminals would be designed with focus on futuristic use. Proposed upgradation of technology in various fields will involve significant changes both in numbers and composition of the work force and to deal with this development the existing training facilities would be augmented.
(iii) Development of Rapid Handling Terminals: It is estimated that 40-50 per cent of the average turnround time of wagons is spent at the freight terminals. Development of terminals would therefore, be a priority area for reducing wagon detention and improving their utilisation. About 10-15 per cent of the 5000 Railway terminals handle 90 per cent of the traffic. Such terminals handling large volume of traffic would be developed on priority basis. At the same time major users like coal mines, steel plants, power stations need to be persuaded to modernise and update facilities at their terminals.
(iv) Improved Maintenance: The percentage of ineffective rolling stock is substantially higher than prescribed levels partly because of the inadequacy in the maintenance infrastructure which is burdened with overaged and obsolete plant and machinery and partly because of increasing prop- ortion of ageing assets. Thus, both the quality of preventive maintenance and output leave much to be desired. Maintenance practices would be re-oriented from time based to predictive maintenance. In particular, the number of workshops would be reduced, uni-activity workshops introduced in place of multi-activity units and maintenance procedures evolved on the basis of composite rakes of wagons/coaches. Likewise, effective unit-exchange system of maintenance would be introduced, while online wagon maintenance would be adjusted to bulk mode of operations.
(v) Traction Policy: Steam traction is inefficient, both from the point of view of operations and energy consumption. Most of the steam locomotives are now relegated to inferior services, and are thus a drag on the system. To improve service capability, the Railways need to accelerate the programme of conversion from steam to diesel and electric traction, and completely phase out steam locomotives latest by the year 2000. This, in turn, would release about 9 million tonnes of capacity presently used to carry coal for the Railways.
(vi) Review of On-going Projects: The on-going schemes particularly of new lines and gauge conversion would be reviewed to pursue projects which either add to the capacity or provide alternative routes, or else are project linked. Proposals for new schemes would be considered with extreme care.
The subject of gauge conversions was extensively examined by the National Transport Policy Committee which came to the conclusion that with appropriate steps to optimise the Metre Gauge system, it will be possible for the Railways to satisfy the increasing traffic demand on these sections. The NTPC, therefore, recommended adoption of a cautious approach in respect of conversion, restricting conversions only to serve as alternative routes in respect of saturated sections. The Railways have in the past neglected their Metre Gauge network. It is, therefore, necessary to optimise the capacity on the MG sections rather than undertake more expensive gauge conversions. At the same time, the number of transhipment points would be reduced and mechanised handling introduced to ensure smooth flow of goods.
Traffic facilities like doubling of routes which add to the capacity would be vigorously pursued. The priority areas in this regared are the heavy density quadrilateral and diagonal sections of the system.
A long term perspective plan, for the expansion of the railway network would be drawn up. With the existing trunk routes reaching saturation levels, the traditional approach of additional trackage on these routes would be given up and instead alternative routes developed. This would enable links that could be shorter, thereby reducing the transport effort and costs, and also simultaneously lead to the opening up of new areas. Such an approach would thus combine the dual advantages of increasing Railway's capacity and opening new areas.
8.45 In view of constraint of resources, the plan programme would accord top priority to replacement of overaged assets, maintenance of existing assets and completion of essential on-going projects which add to transport capacity. Emphasis would also be given to investment required for technical upgradation and modernisation.
208
8.46 Besides investment priorities, there is imperatives need to observe operational priority as a whole and in this regard Railways would accord preference to movement of freight traffic over passenger services till the system has built up adequate capacity to deal with both segments of traffic.
8.47 Apart from investment priorities, certain other important aspects need to be considered during the Seventh Plan. These are highlighted in the subsequent paragraphs.
Pricing & Service 8.48 Prices would be kept generally in line with the operating costs. The price mechanism, besides, would be used to contain the demand for passenger traffic to the desired level assessed on the basis of resource costs. At the same time, it is imperative to reduce working expenses which were as high as 96.9% of the revenue in 1984- 85, improve productivity and provide better quality of service. If such measures are not taken, the railway system may not remain viable in the foreseeable future.
Research