Table 3.7
Gross Investment by Destination Sectors and Increment in Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) at Factor Cost (1980-85)
(Rs. crores at 1979-80 prices)
Sl. Invest- Increme-
No. Sector ment mental
(at GDP
market (at
prices) factor
cost)
(0) (1) (2) (3)
1 Agriculture . . . . . 32242 6404
2 Forestry and Logging. . . . 478 327
3 Fishing . . . . . . 748 318
4 Mining and Quarrying . . . 6575 1040
5 Manufacturing . . . . . 45515 6500
6 Construction . . . . . 1760 1389
7 Electricity, Gas and Water Supply . 23554 686
8 Railways . . . . . . 4724 420
9 Other Transport . . . . 11330 1025
10 Communications . . . . . 2902 262
11 Trade, Storage and Ware Housing . 7299 5026
12 Banking and Insurance . . . 260 968
13 Real Estate and Ownership of
Dwellings . . . . . . 16437 923
14 Other Services (including Public
Administration and Research) . . 4886 2711
15 Total at factor cost . . . .. 27999
16 Total at market prices . . . 158710 37994
3.28 The distribution of private investment in the major sectors is shown in Table 3.8.
Table 3.8
Distribution of Private Sector Investment 1980-85
(Rs. crores at 1979-80prices)
Sl. No. Sector Amount Share(%)
(0) (1) (2) (3)
1 Agriculture & Allied . . 16101 21.55
2 Industry & Minerals . . . 30323 40.59
3 Power . . . . . 189 0.25
4 Transport & Communications . 3390 4.54
5 Others . . . . . 24707 33.07
TOTAL . . . 74710 100.00
38
The estimates of investment requirement for the different activities in the private sector have been derived on the basis of the targeted growth rates, the contribution of the public sector and the investment requirements for the generation of new capacity estimated from incremental capital-output ratio derived from past time-series data.
3.29 Investment in mining and manufacturing (including small and village industries) in the past has been nearly one-third of the total private investment. In the present Plan this ratio is likely to go up to nearly 41 per cent of the total. The organised private corporate and cooperative sectors in mining, manufacturing and non-financial services have shown an investment requirement of Rs. 19582 crores. Of this, cooperative sector is estimated to require an investment of Rs. 2000 crores.
3.30 The broad pattern of allocation of corporate mining and manufacturing investment by major industry groups is given in Table 3.9.
Table 3.9
Distribution of Private Corporate Investment in Mining
and Manufacturing
(Rs. crores at 1979-80 prices)
Sl. Industry Group Total
No.
(0) (1) (2)
1 Mining . . . . . . . . 25 @
2 Metallurgical . . . . . . . 1244
3 Engineering . . . . . . . 2463
4 Chemicals . . . . . . . . 3920
5 Consumer Industries . . . . . . 5375
6 Miscellaneous . . . . . . . 2155
TOTAL . . . . . . . 15182
@Excluding captive mining which is included under respective
industries.
NOTE : Figures include about Rs. 2000 crores in cooperative
manufacturings sector.
3.31 The inter-sectoral capital flows for the period 1980-85 are presented in Table 3.10.
Table 3.10
Inter-sectoral Capital Flows: 1980-85
(Rs. crores at 1979-80 prices)
Sl. Item Public Corporate House- Total
No. Sector & Coopera- hold
tive Sector Sector
(0) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
1 Own Saving 34200 10588 104859* 149647
2 Transfer from
other domestic
sectors 38871 8994 (-)47865 -
3 Inflow from
rest of the
world 10929 - (-)1866 9063
4 Investment 84000 19582 55128 158710
*Details are given in Annexure 5.1.
3.32 Table 3.10 shows household savings of Rs. 104859 crores. These are used partly to finance the sector's investment in physical assets of Rs. 55128 crores; the rest are transferred to the public sector and the corporate and cooperative sectors. The latter sectors will have a total investment of Rs. 19582 crores, financed by own savings and transfers from other domestic sectors, including the household sector.
SECTORAL GROWTH PROFILE 3.33 The experience of the recent past shows that a lack of coordination among critical sectors acts as a general drag on economic growth. Production capacities created after a massive investment effort remain under-utilised due to shortfalls in performance of a few sectors. It is, therefore, essential that the projected production profile should be internally consistent not only at the sectoral level, but also at the level of specific commodities/services. Commodity-wise demand-supply (material) balances presented below project the consistency/service with the targets of user-sectors. These balances are for the country as a whole. In taking operational decisions regarding production of the respective commodities and also for creation of additional capacities, inter-sectoral balances.
3.34 Physical targets of production for the principal commodities and services are presented in Table 3.11 Sectoral priorities have been built into the projected targets of demand and output of the principal commodities. These are discussed under the respective sectors.
39
Table 3.11
Commodity output Projections : 1984-85
Sl. Item Unit 1979-80 1984-85
No. (Projections)
(0) (1) (2) (3) (4)
1 Foodgrains Million tonnes 109 149 to
154
2 Sugarcane Million tonnes 128 200 to
215
3 Jute and Mesta Lakh bales 80.3 91.0
4 Cotton Lakh bales 77 92
5 Oilseeds Lakh tonnes 81 110
(five major)
6 Tea Million Kgs. 550 705
7 Coffee Million Kgs. 150.00 159.45
8 Milk Million tonnes 30.27 38
9 Eggs Million Nos. 12320 16300
10 Coal Million tonnes 103.96 165.00
11 Lignite Million tonnes 3.12 8.00
12 Crude Petroleum Million tonnes 11.77 21.6
13 Iron Ore and Million tonnes 39 60
Concentrates
14 Sugar Million tonnes 3.9 7.6
15 Vanaspati Thousand tonnes 626 900
16 Cloth (mill and Million metres 10435 13030
decentralised
sectors)
17 Jute Manufactures Thousand tonnes 1336 1500 to
1540
18 Paper and Paper Thousand tonnes 1050 1500
Board
19 Newsprint Thousand tonnes 47.45 180
20 L.D. Polyethylene Thousand tonnes 71.3 100.0
21 H.D. Polyethylene Thousand tonnes 25.4 27.0
22 Polyprophylene Thousand tonnes 13.4 27.0
23 P.V.C. Thousand tonnes 49.9 128.0
24 Natural Rubber Thousand tonnes 148.47 200.0
25 Synthetic Rubber Thousand tonnes 30.3 45
(SBR and PBR)
Petroleum Products Million tonnes 25.8 35.3
(Including
Lubricants)
27 Sulphuric Acid Thousand tonnes 2131 3600
28 Caustic Soda Thousand tonnes 549.6 850
29 Soda Ash Thousand tonnes 555.8 850
30 Caprolactum Thousand tonnes 13.5 18.0
31 DMT Thousand tonnes 27.9 56.0
32 Nitrogenous Thousand tonnes 22226 4200
Fertilisers (N)
33 Phosphatic Thousand tonnes 757 1400
Fertilisers(P 2 O 5
34 Nylon Filament Thousand tonnes 17.7 28.0
Yarn
35 Polyster Filament Thousand tonnes 32.6 73.0
Yarn and Staple
Fibre
36 Cement Million tonnes 17.68 34 to
34.5
37 Pig Iron for sale Million tonnes 1.09 1.52
38 Saleable Steel Million tonnes 7.38 11.51
(Plain carbon)
39 Aluminium Thousand tonnes 192 300
40 Copper Refined Thousand tonnes 18.8 45.0
41 Zinc Thousand tonnes 52.6 585.00
42 Lead Thousand tonnes 11.4 25.0
43 Agricultural Tractors Thousand nos. 62.5 100.0
44 Machine Tools Rs. Million 1633 2500
45 Hydro Turbines Million Kw 0.95 1.20
46 Thermal Turbines Million Kw 2.28 3.50
47 Electric Transformers Million KVA 18.7 35.0
48 Commercial Vehicles Thousand nos. 57.4 105.0
49 Electricity Generation Billion KWH 112 191
50 Railways-Originating Million tonnes 217.8 309
Traffic
40
Agriculture 3.35 The gross cropped area in 1979-80 has been estimated at 168 million hectares with net sown area of 140 million hectares and 28 million hectares area sown more than once. Thus the cropping intensity in 1979-80 is estimated at 1.20. Based on land utilisation concept of irrigated areas, the gross irrigated area in 1979-80 has been estimated as 50.00 million hectares. During the Sixth Plan another 14 million hectares would be brought under irrigation. Thus the gross irrigated area in 1984-85 is likely to attain a level of 64.00 million hectares. The additional irrigation is likely to increase the area under short duration high yielding varieties and thus promote cropping intensity which is projected to go up from 1.20 in 1979-80 to 1.25 in 1984-85.
3.36 It has been assumed that the increase in gross cropped area in future years could be achieved through the creation of additional irrigation facilities. Several functional relationships between gross cropped area and gross irrigated area, as also between gross irrigated area and incremental area sown more than once, with the without time lags were studied, based on data for the period 1960-61 to 1978-79. On the basis of these studies, gross cropped area has been projected of increase to 179.74 million hectares in 1984-85. A substantial step-up in the creation of irrigation potential and its optimum utilisation is thus crucial for achieving the output targets for various crops in the Sixth Plan period.
3.37 In the allocation of gross cropped area estimated for the terminal year of the Sixth Plan between different crops, lagging crop sectors, like pulses and oilseeds, have been given greater importance. As a first approximation, gross cropped area has been allocated between different crops on the basis of trend growth rates of the percentage share of each crop in the gross cropped ares. The area projected for each crop has again been allocated between different categories of land (HYV/Irrigated/Unirrigated) on the basis of respective estimated trend growth rates. In view of the existing imbalances in the crop composition, trend projections of area for lagging crop sectors have been revised upwards. Policy instruments particularly with reference to land and water use, coupled with promotion of appropriate research on high yielding varieties and intensification of lab-to-field movement, are likely to help in inducing the acreage as will as yield shifts in favour of lagging crops sectors.
3.38 Per hectare yield rates as available from the reports of the crop cutting experiments of the National Sample Survey Organisation have been used in the case of foodgrains and cotton. For sugarcane, marginal improvement in all India yield rates over the peak-level achieved so far is visualised in the estimation of output in 1984-85. In the case of jute and mesta, improvement in yield rates as warranted by past experience have been assumed. While selecting the estimates of average yields for foodgrains, account was taken of the experience of early seventies when the average yields were relatively on the high side compared to their levels in the later years.
3.39 The projected output of major crops for the year 1984-85, estimated on the basis of above assumptions, are indicated in Table 3.12.
41
Table 3.12
Area Yield Level and Output of Principal Crops in 1984-85
Crop Land Category Area Yield Production
(Mill. Hec.) (Kg/Hec) (Mill.Tonnes)
(0) (1) (2) (3) (4)
Rice . . . . . HYV Irrigated 19.89 2231 44.37
Other Irrigated 0.80 1293 1.03
Unirrigated 20.58 863 17.76
TOTAL 41.27 1524 63.16
Wheat. . . . . HYV Irrigated 18.00 2101 37.82
Other Irrigated 0.80 1290 1.03
Unirrigated 6.20 790 4.90
TOTAL 25.00 1750 43.75
Other Cereals . . . Irrigated 6.00 1394 8.36
Unirrigated 32.00 627 20.06
TOTAL 38.00 748 28.42
Pulses . . . . Irrigated 3.40 .. ..
Unirrigated 23.40 .. ..
TOTAL 26.80 560 15.00
Total Foodgrains . . Irrigated 48.89 .. ..
Unirrigated 82.18 .. ..
TOTAL 131.07 1147 150.33
Sugarcane . . . Irrigated 3.48 .. ..
Unirrigated 0.00 .. ..
TOTAL 3.48 57,500 200.10
Cotton . . . . Irrigated 4.10 310 74.76
Unirrigated 4.36 75 19.24
TOTAL 8.46 189 94.00
(lakh bales)
Jute & Mesta . . . Irrigated 0.06 .. ..
Unirrigated 1.28 .. ..
TOTAL 1.34 1250 93.06
(lakh bales)
Other Crops] . . . Irrigated 7.47 .. ..
Unirrigated 27.92 .. ..
TOTAL 35.39
All Crops . . . . Irrigated 64.00
Unirrigated 115.74
TOTAL 179.74
The foodgrains output is projected to grow by 6.5 per cent per annum using a base level figure of 109 million tonnes in 1979-80. However, using trend estimate for 1979-80 the growth rate works out to 3.2 per cent as against a growth rate of 2.74 per cent observed during 1969-70 to 1978-79.
3.40 With the launching of the project 'Operation Flood II,' the output of milk is to be substantially increased and is estimated at 38 million tonnes in 1984-85 as against an estimated level of 30.27 million tonnes in 1979-80. The increase implies an annual growth rate of 4.65 per cent. The growth rate for milk and milk products during the Plan period works out to 5.51 per cent. In respect of other animal husbandry products, the Sixth Plan envisages a growth rate of 5.71 per cent.
3.41 The Sixth Plan provides for a growth rate of