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the population was over 60 years of age. However, due to the expected decline in fertility and mortality, the age structure of the population will change in the future, as is shown in Table 2.2. The proportion of persons below 15 years of age would come down from 39.7 per cent of the total population in 1980 to 36 percent in 1990 and further to 31.6 per cent in the year 2000. This will mean that the dependency ratio* will come down from 0.66 in 1980 to 0.46 by the year 2000.
TABLE 2.2
Age Structure of the Population 1980-2000
(as on 1st March)
(Per cent of total population)
Age Group 1980 1985 1990 2000
(0) (1) (2) (3) (4)
0-4 14.18 13.91 12.85 10.67
5-14 25.54 24.34 23.15 20.96
15-59 54.07 55.51 57.50 60.79
60 plus 6.21 6.24 6.50 7.58
TOTAL: 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
2.28 It is expected that the number of females in the re- productive age group 15-44 will go up from 141 million in 1980 to 228 million in 2000. The proportion of females in this age group to the total female population would also rise during the period (Table 2.3)
TABLE 2.3
Women in the Reproductive Age Group 1980-2000
(As on 1st March)
(Millions)
Year Total Women Ratio of
female in the women
population age group in the
15-44 repro-
ductive
age
group to
total
female
population
(Per cent)
(0) (1) (2) (3)
1980 323.59 140.72 43.49
1985 360.74 160.25 44.42
1990 398.41 183.03 45.94
2000 472.64 227.67 48.17
Labour Force 2.29 Labour force projections, based on the usual status participation rates, provided by the National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO), 32nd round (1977-78), by age, sex and place of residence, are given in Table 2.4. Surviving children born in the last fifteen years will be entering the labour force during the period 1985-2000. The labour force would be increasing at the annual rate of 2.56 per cent during 1985-90 and at 2.24 per cent during 1990-2000 as against the annual rate of growth of population of 1.96 per cent and 1.69 per cent respectively. The absolute magnitude of addition to the labour force works out to 39 million and 81 million during these two periods. Taking into account the estimated backlog of unemployment as of 1985, the overall magnitude of additional employment to be generated by the year 2000 would be around 130 million. In the 15- year perspective, therefore, a major challenge would be to create this volume of additional employment. The projected scenario of a continued GDP growth rate of 5 per cent per annum, a fast rate of growth of agriculture combined with an even faster rate of growth of industry together with specific employment generation programmes would, it is expected, make possible the provision of jobs to all in the labour force by the year 2000.
Urbanisation 2.30 The urban population in the year 2000 is estimated at nearly 315 million, indicating a share of 32 per cent in the total population. This is roughly 54 per cent of the total addition to population in India between 1981 and the year 2000. The historical record of urbanisation since the beginning of the century reveals that whereas the urban population increased by 500 per cent, the number of settlements increased by only 77 per cent (between 1901 and 1981). This brings out the fact that most of the growth occurred through the enlargement of the existing towns at every level, and not because of the addition of new towns.
2.31 The envisaged urbanisation trends will result in an increase in the urban labour force by nearly 3 to 4 million per annum during 1985-2000. This, added to the existing magnitude of unemployed in the urban areas, gives us a broad dimension of the problem of urban employment demand.
2.32 The latest population census reveals that nearly 60 percent of the urban population resided in Class I cities, i.e., in cities with a population of one lakh or more. Another 26 per cent resided in Class II and Class III towns (i.e., 20,000 to one lakh population). The balance of towns accounted for only 14 per cent of the urban population.
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2.33 Given the severe over-crowding, the physical limitations to further expansion and the high cost of investment in the metropolitan cities, the policy thrust in the perspective period would have to be to moderate the growth of the cities with million-plus population through a well-defined policy of diversion of the migrant population towards smaller towns and cities. Towards this end, employment promotion policies, policies of urbanisation, urban financing and industrial and transport policies would have to be coordinated. Considering the complexity and magnitude of the problems generated by rapid urbanisation against the background of extreme inadequacies in the existing infrastructure, innovative strategies will have to be evolved to raise resources on the scale needed to finance urban infrastructure. Part of the action programme would be to revitalise the municipal bodies and improve their own finances. This would have to be supplemented by the mobilisation of a larger proportion of resources from the capital market. Considerably more emphasis would also have to be given to development of land and of house construction so that by the end of the perspective Plan, a major dent would have been made in the problem of urban housing shortage.
Development Perspective 2.34 Taking into account the basic goals to be achieved by the year 2000 and the resources base, alternative development scenarios were simulated, using a mathematical model, with a view to optimising the attainment of the mix of objectives. From the alternative development scenarios, a profile of development has been chosen which would enable the economy to reach and maintain a high and steady growth path. The simulation exercise clearly brought out that for fulfilling this objective, modernisation and the adoption of advanced technology would require priority attention so that an optimum use of resources can be brought about.
2.35 The gross domestic product at factor cost is postulated to grow at an average rate of 5 per cent over the 15 year period 1985- 2000. Table 2.5 gives the macro-economic aggregates of the perspective Plan 1990-2000 and for the base year 1984-85. The rate of capital formation has been projected to increase from 24.5 per cent of GDP to 26.4 per cent and that of domestic savings from 23.3 per cent to 25.8 per cent. The contribution of foreign savings (current account balance) has been stipulated to decline from 1.4 per cent of GDP in 1989-90 to 0.6 per cent in 1999-2000.
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TABLE 2.5
Macro Economic Aggregates
(Rs. crores at 1984-85 prices)
1984-85 1989-90 1999-2000
GDP at factor cost 193428 246881 402143
Indirect taxes less subsidies 24334 35064 65939
GDP at market prices 217762 281945 468082
Net factor income from abroad (-)681 (-)500 (-)100
Other current transfers 2799 3000 3500
Disposable income 219880 284445 471482
Gross domestic savings 50738 68997 120540
Consumption expenditure:
Total 169142 215448 350942
Private 146308 185285 301810
Public 22834 30163 49132
Gross domestic capital
formation 53338 72997 123540
Foreign savings 2600 4000 3000
Rate of domestic savings 23.3 24.5 25.8
Rate of investment 24.5 25.9 26.4
Marginal rate of savings 28.4 27.7
2.36 Table 2.6 gives the projected growth rates of sectoral value added over the period 1989-90 to 1999-2000. In terms of value added, the highest growth rate will be recorded by manufacturing followed by electricity, gas and water supply.
TABLE 2.6
Projected Sectoral Annual Rates of Growth in Terms of Gross Value
Added at Factor Cost
(Per cent per annum compound)
Sl. Sector 1989-90 1999-2000
No. 1984-85 1989-1990
(1) (2) (3) (4)
1. Agriculture 2.5 2.4
2. Mining and manufacturing 6.8 6.9
(a) Mining 11.7 3.5
(b) Manufacturing 5.5 7.8
3. Electricity, gas and water supply 7.9 7.7
4. Construction 4.8 4.9
5. Transport 7.1 5.3
6. Services 6.1 5.8
TOTAL: 5.0 5.0
2.37 Table 2.7 gives the sectoral composition of gross value added at factor cost in the perspective plan period. The figures indicate that a major structural change has been built into the development over the perspective plan period. Because of the fast pace of industrialisation, the share of manufacturing is expected to increase from a level below 15 per cent of the total in 1984-85 to around 20 per cent in 1999-2000. It is also significant that the share of infrastructure sectors including electricity, gas, water supply and transport will be increasing. The share of services will increase from around 31 per cent to 35.5 per cent. Correspondingly, the share of agriculture is expected to alter from around 37 per cent to 25.5 per cent. These structural changes are in line with the experience of many of the now industrialised nations.
TABLE 2.7
Sectoral Composition of Gross Value Added at Factor Cost 1984-85,
1989-90 and 1999-2000
(Per cent)
Sl. Sector 1984-1985 1989-1990 1999-2000
No.
(0) (1) (2) (3) (4)
1. Agriculture 36.9 32.7 25.5
2. Mining and manufacturing 18.1 19.8 23.6
(a) Mining 3.5 4.8 3.8
(b) Manufacturing 14.6 15.0 19.8
3. Electricity, gas and water supply 2.0 2.3 2.9
4. Construction 6.2 6.2 6.1
5. Transport 5.6 6.2 6.4
6. Services 31.2 32.9 35.5
TOTAL: 100.00 100.00 100.00
Agricultural Perspective 2.38 While India's agriculture has taken massive strides during three and a half decades of planning, its growth and development has not been uniform all over the country. The differential pattern and pace of agricultural development, particularly the growth of foodgrains production, has led to regional disparities. Again, among the principal crops, the production of pulses and oilseeds is not sufficient to meet the needs of the growing population.
2.39 The perspective plan for agriculture development aims at maintaining self-sufficiency in foodgrains and attaining self- sufficiency in respect of pulses, oilseeds, and fibre. Its other objectives are to maximise employment opportunities and to promote conservation and environmental protection measures so as to arrest the degradation of the natural endowments of soil, water and other resources.
2.40 By the turn of the century, the total population of the country is expected to be 972 million. As stated, the gross domestic product is stipulated to rise at 5 per cent
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per annum over the period 1985-2000. Given these developments, the foodgrains requirement by the year 2000 has been estimated around 240 million tonnes (see Table 2.8) The achievement of this target will be made possible by increased use of fertiliser and irrigated area, and by improvement in technology. For achieving the target of foodgrains and other crops, the requirment of fertiliser by 1999-2000 has been estimated at around 20 million tonnes, and that of irrigation around 100 million hectares.
2.41 While the required production of cereals appeard to be attainable, more intractable problems are likely to be encountered in the case of pulses and oilseeds. Keeping in view the importance of attaining self-sufficiency in the latter two crops, it would be necessary to undertake special measures to increase their output. New high yielding varieties which at the same time are sufficiently drought resistant, will need to be evolved and brought into production.
2.42 By the close of this century the process of transformation implicit in the perspective plan should take agriculture to a level where it will be far more science-based and industry-linked than it is now. Emerging areas like biotechnology, genetic engineering, photosynthesis, tissue culture, bio-insecticides and pheromones would be the new fields of research for aiding the growth of agricultural productivity.
2.43 Besides the extension and intensification of research, the perspective Plan envisages the introduction of modern management techniques in relation to irrigation and agricultural extension services. Reform and revitalisation of the cooperative movement would form an important plank in the programme of agricultural development.
2.44 Even after the full exploitation of all the available irrigation potential, about 50 per cent of the cultivated area will remain dependent on rainfall. As of now, the rainfed areas constitute over 70 per cent of crop lands and contribute about 43 per cent of foodgrains production. The improvement of productivity of the rainfed areas has thus a close bearing on the well-being of a large mass of the population. An important strategy for agriculture in the perspective plan period would be to intensify research on dry-land farming, accelerate the transfer of new technologies from the laboratory to the farm and to channelise more credit into, and develop marketing facilities in, dry-farming areas so as to assist in the speedy application of new technologies.
2.45 Alongside agricultural growth, a high rate of growth has been postulated in the perspective plan for the products of animal husbandry and fisheries. Animal husbandry could become a major source of income for landless labourers and marginal farmers and also for people living in the hilly terrain and dry areas.
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2.46 The direct consumption demand for animal husbandry products in year 2000 is estimated to be: milk 64 million tonnes; eggs 28,500 million; and meat 2 million tonnes. The programme of development envisaged is designed to provide self-sufficiency in regard to milk, eggs, meat and wool by the turn of the century.
2.47 The fishery industry has a considerable potential as an income and employment generator. Besides providing the needed protein food to the population, it also has potential as a foreign exchange earner. Thus, the growth of this sector could make a sizeable impact on the economy and the life of the people. The target of fish production is expected to reach 6 million tonnes by the year 2000; out of this, about 2 million tonnes are expected to be contributed by the inland sector. This scale of production would benefit 25 lakh active fishermen in the country. Along with increased production, the per- capita consumption of fish is expected to go up from the present level of 3.5 kg. to over 6 kg. by the turn of the century.
2.48 In bringing about the envisaged increase in the output of fishery products, the major thrust during the coming years would have to be the use of sophisticated technology in the capture and culture of fish and the development of post-harvest technologies. Adoption of new bio-technologies, algae culture in oxidation ponds, production of bio-gas, recycling of water for land and water management would lead to high productivity.
Forestry 2.49 The National Forest Policy of 1952 stipulated that the country should have a coverage of at least one-third of its total geographical area under forest-60 per cent in the hilly tracts and 20 per cent in the plains. Against this, there are varying figures given of the forest cover of the country. The estimates of State Forest Departments add up to a forest cover of 75 million hectares which is equal to 23 per cent of the total geographical area. However, according to estimates of the National Remote Sensing Agency, the area under forests was 55 million hectares in 1972-75 and it came down to 46 million hectares in 1980-82. According to the latter estimate one and a half million hectares of forest cover seem to have been lost annually. Equally alarming is the fact that nearly half of the forest area is either degraded or under-stocked. This rapid decrease in forest cover and deterioration in its quality is due to the growth of human and animal population, the increasing demand for fuel wood for meeting domestic energy needs and the rising industrial demand for forest products, e.g., for paper, pulp and construction. The reduction in forest cover has resulted in serious soil erosion and ecological damage on a scale leading to desertification, with serious repercussions on society, particularly in vulnerable regions such as the hill areas.