AGRICULTURE
I
REVIEW OF PROGRESS (1961-69) The eight years between the commencement of the Third Plan and the Fourth have been years of great significance for Indian agriculture. This is particularly true of the latter half of the period. It has been marked by near disaster and much achievement. More importantly, it has held out great promise for the future. The farmer responded favourably to a combination of good prices, high-yielding seeds and adequate fertilisers. He took to improved farm, practices as readily as to non-traditional inputs. Ground water was put to intensive use. Institutional credit was sought to be expanded. In view of the urgency of the need, it was decided to direct state effort in the first instance to those areas which were best endowed for food production. This was the basis of what has come to be known as the new strategy of agricultural development.
Evolution of Agricultural Strategy 7.2. The first stage of the new strategy pertained to the Intensive Agricultural District Programme. It was started in 1960-61 in three districts and was subsequently extended by stages to another thirteen. While the performance varied, it clearly demonstrated both the value of the "Package" approach and the advantage of concentrating effort in specific areas. In 1964-65 and subsequent years, a modified version of the same approach was extended to several other parts of the country in the form of the Intensive Agricultural Area Programme. The main concern of the Programme was with specific crops and the extension staff employed was on a reduced scale.
7.3. While both the Intensive Agricultural District and Intensive Agricultural Area Programmes were concerned with the promotion of intensive agriculture, they operated within the limitations set by existing crop varieties which bad relatively low response to fertilisers. A major change occurred with the introduction of the high-yielding varieties. Hybridisation techniques for maize and millets had been initiated as early as 1960. Hybrid seeds began to be widely adopted by 1963. In wheat, a beginning of great importance was made in 1963-64 by trying out the Maxican dwarf varieties on a selected basis. Paddy seeds of exotic varieties such as Taichung Native-1 were introduced in 1965. The propagation of various high- yielding varieties over fairly large areas was taken up as a full fledged programme from Kharif 1966 onwards. By 1967-68, 6.04 million hectares were brought within the purview of this programme. On the eve of the Fourth Plan, the coverage estimated was 9.2 million hectares.
7.4. The high-yielding varieties programme has so far been taken up for five crops, namely, wheat, paddy, bajra, maize and jowar. Among these crops, the most striking success has been achieved in wheat. In some of the dwarf varieties, a yield of 5 to 6 tonnes per hectare has been recorded in farmers fields its against a normal yield of about 2 tonnes in irrigated areas. Similar, though not as specta- cular increases have been achieved for jowar, bajra and maize. Paddy has proved more difficult. ADT-27 a variety propagated in Tanjore district has given an average yield of four to five tonnes of paddy per hectare. On the other hand, certain exotic varieties of paddy when initially introduced, ran into trouble on account of their susceptibility to pests and bacterial diseases. There was also a cer- tain amount of consumer resistance. To overcome these difficulties, research in rice breeding was intensified. The All India Coordinated Project of Rice Research has recently evolved and released a few varieties of considerable promise.
7.5. The new strategy is concerned not only with higher yield but with greater intensity of cropping. Entirely new crop rotations have been made possible by the development of short duration varieties of paddy, maize, jowar and bajra suited to different agro-climatic conditions. Among other crops included in the rotations are barley, ragi, oilseeds, potato and vegetables. The new multi-cropping programme was taken up in 1967-68. It is provisionally estimated that, by the end of 1968-69, about 6 million hectares was covered by this programme.
7.6. In recent years, new emphasis has come to be attached to the role of agricultural technology as a major input of agricultural production. A number of steps have been taken to facilitate organi- sation and development of agricultural research. The Indian Council of Agricultural Research was reorganised in 1965. To it were transferred the research institutes which had been previously administered by the Union Department of Agriculture either directly or through the various Commodity Committees. An important step was the establishment of agricultural universities which are conceived as combining the functions of education, research and extension education. Nine agricultural
60
61
AGRICULTURE
universities have so far been set up. Another development of importance is the organisation of all-India coordinated research projects. Thirty-eight such projects have so far been taken up by the Indian Council of Agricultural Research. They constitute a significant advance towards the planning of agricultural research on a national basis.
7.7. In view of the importance assumed by inputs and services such as improved seeds, chemical fertilisers, plant protection, implements and machinery, irrigation facilities and agricultural credit, several new public institutions were promoted and provided with funds to lend support to agricultural production programmes. Among these institutions was the National Seeds Corporation which was set up in 1963 with responsibilities in the field of seed production, particularly the foundation stock of high-yielding varieties. Starting with 1965, fifteen agro-industries corporations have been established in different States. They are joint ventures of the Central and State Governments charged with the, primary object of supplying and servicing agricultural machinery. For promoting programmes for Production, marketing, processing and storage of agricultural produce through, cooperative societies, another public agency, namely, the National Cooperative Development Corporation, was set up on a statutory basis in 1963. In the same year the Agri- cultural Refinance Corporation was established to provide refinancing facilities to land development banks and commercial banks for financing schemes of agricultural development.
7.8. As a result of various measures taken, there was significant increase in the use of agricultural inputs and the volume of cooperative credit as will be seen from the table below :
TABLE 1 : Progress in the Use of Agriculture Inputs
sl. no item unit 1960-61 1968-69
(0) (1) (2) (3) (4)
chemical fertilisers
1 nitrogenous (N) '000 tonnes 210 1145
2 phosphatic (P 2 O 5) '000 tonnes 70 391
3 potassic (K 2 O) '000 tonnes 26 160
4 plant protection '000 hectares 6500 40000
implements and machinery
5 tractors . . nos 31000 91000
6 power tillers . nos - 20000
7 pump sets-electric '000 nos 191 1038
8 pup sets-diesel '000 nos 230 650
loanas dvanced through cooperative
9 shor and medium term Rs. crores 203 400
10 long term . . Rs. crores 12 120
7.9. The importance of guaranteed minimum prices as an incentive to agricultural production was given pointed recognition in the new strategy. A policy of support prices for foodgrains came to be adopted throughout the country in 1964. In the subsequent year, the Agricultural Prices Commission was set up to advise Government from time to time on appropriate price policies for agricultural commodities. In the same year was also established the Food Corporation, of India which, for the first time, sought to provide an all-India machinery for purchase of foodgrains. The purchase could take place in different contexts, including procurement in times of shortage and price support in times of plenty. During the drought years of 1965-66 and 1966-67. the policy of price support remained mostly inoperative on account of the prevailing high prices. In 1967- 68, following a bumper wheat crop, purchase operations were undertaken on a large scale in Punjab and Haryana tender the auspices of the Food Corporation and the Punjab Cooperative Marketing Federation. These purchases were generally on the basis of procurement prices which were appreciably above the minimum support prices. However, in some markets in Uttar Pradesh, in the absence of adequate machinery for purchase, the farmers failed to gel procurement prices for their producer Jute was another commodity for which minimum prices were fixed. but these totaled to be effective on account of inadequate purchase organisation in the field. Statutory price controls on cotton were lifted during 1967-68 and minimum support Prices were fixed at a level higher than previous floor prices. During 1968-69 this policy was continued.
Review of Agricultural Production 7.10. Agricultural production has followed an erratic trend. After relative Stagnation are the first three years of the Third Plan, there was a marked increase in 1964-65 when the output of practically all crops reached new record levels. The aggregate index of production in this year was 159.4 (1949-50 = 100) about 12 per cent higher than in 1960-61. The subsequent two years witnessed a precipitous fall of production on account of unprecedented drought. In 1965-66, food grains production fell by 20 per cent. The index of aggregate output was lower by about a sixth. In 1966-67. while there was a marginal recovery in output of foodgrains and some commercial crops, the overall index was still somewhat below the level achieved in 1965-66. Thereafter, there was a marked and welcome spurt in agricultural production. The foodgrain output in 1967-68 reached 95.1 million tonnes. The production of other important crops also recovered from the abnormally low level of 1965-66 but, in many cases. they did riot reach the levels achieved in 1964-65. Altogether, the index of production in 1967-68 was estimated to be 161.0 i.e. about I per cent higher than in 1964-65. During 1968-69, foodgrains production registered a slight decline of 1.1 Per cent over the previous year on account of some what
62
FOURTH FIVE YEAR PLAN
adverse weather conditions. The production of other Important crops, except sugarcane and potato. was also lower. The aggregate index for 1968-69 came down to 158.7.
7.11. The following table indicates the rates of growth for various crops for 1949-50 to 1968-69 :
TABLE 2 : All-India compounds Rates of Growth of Agricultural
Production, Area under Crops and Agricultural Productivity
during 1949-50 to 1968-69.
(per cent per annum)
sl. no. crop production area productivity
(0) (1) (2) (3) (4)
1 rice 3.02 1.22 1.78
2 jowar 2.30 0.86 1.42
3 bajra 2.36 1.14 1.21
4 maize 3.88 2.79 1.05
5 ragi 1.88 0.36 1.51
6 Wheat 4.20 2.26 1.90
7 barley (-)0.12 (-)0.74 0.62
8 cereals 3.00 1.17 1.82
9 gram 1.77 0.77 0.99
10 pulses 1.16 1.26 (-)0.10
11 foodgrains 2.79 1.19 1.65
12 groundnut 3.51 3.45 0.06
13 sesamum (-)0.34 0.60 (-)0.93
14 rapeseed and mustard 3.34 2.16 0.95
15 oilseeds 2.86 2.31 0.53
16 cotton 3.93 1.91 1.98
17 jute 2.29 2.03 0.27
18 fibres 3.49 1.94 1.52
19 tea 1.97 0.69 1.27
20 coffee 5.96 2.32 3.56
21 sugarcane 3.97 2.74 1.20
22 tobacco 2.55 1.37 1.17
23 non-foodgrains 3.18 2.19 0.97
24 all-crops 2.92 1.37 1.53
Aggregate agricultural production rose at an average of 2.92 per cent per annum, foodgrains at 2.79 per cent end non-foodgrains crops at 3.18 per cent. Somewhat over half of the trend increase in total crop production was derived from higher yields per hectare. The remainder represents the contribution of area growth, estimated at about 1.37 per cent per annum. The rate of yield improvement was much faster for foodgrain crops (1.65 per cent per annum) than for non-foodgrain Crops (0-97 per cent per annum). Judging by the relative movement of area and production in the last few years, there would appear to be a marked deceleration in area growth. There are indications that the rate of yield improvement in foodgrains has accelerated significantly. For the commercial crops, there does not yet seem to be a comparable improvement.
7.12 Among foodgrains, there were significant variations in the performance of individual crops. The output of rice, wheat and maize have grown appreciably faster than of millets. On the other hand, the output of pulses, which are of particular importance from the nutritional view point, has increased only about less than half as fast as that of cereals. What is more disturbing is the decline in the average output per hectare of pulses.
7.13 The output of commercial crops, as distinguished from rate of yield. has generally grown faster than that of foodgrains. The trend growth rate of production in cotton was 3.93 per cent a year, sugarcane 3.97 per cent and groundnut 3.51 per cent, and rape and mustard 3.34 per cent. Oilseeds other than groundnut, rape and mustard as also jute and tobacco grew at a relatively slow rate. The faster expansion of commercial crops production was derived largely from increase in areas. With the Exception of cotton, the output per hectare of those crops has grown much slower than of cereals.
7.14. Subject to the obvious limitations which apply to any short-term analysis of production trends, the following table indicates compound growth rates for production, area and productivity of all crops during the various Plan periods:
TABLE 3 : Compound Rates of Increase and Production, Area and
Productivity in Different Plan Periods for all Crops
(per cent per annum)
sl. no. plan period production area productivity
(0) (1) (2) (3) (4)
1 first plan (1951-52 to 1955-56) 4.1 2.6 1.4
2 second plan (1956-57 to 1960-61) 3.1 1.3 1.8
3 third plan (1961-62 to 1964-65) 3.3 0.6 2.7
NOTE: The above estimates are calculated for the First Plan for the
triennium ending, 1951-52 to triennium ending 1956-57 and the
Second Plan for triennium ending 1956-57 to triennium ending
1961-62 and for the Third Plan triennium during 1961-62 to
1964-65 (actuals).
This would show that, even before the introduction of high-yielding varieties, the productivity of agriculture had consistently improved over each Plan period. It is the growth in area which has declined.
7.15. While the variations in growth performance of different crops in the past have been significant, the variations in the growth rates achieved in different regions were even more striking. Statewise compound growth rates up to the end of 1968-69 have not so far been computed. The following table however, shows State compound growth rates of
63
AGRICULTURE
agricultural production, area and productivity from 1952-53 to 1964-65 :
TABLE 4 : State-wise Compound Growth Rates of Agricultural Production,
Area under Crops and Agricultural Productivity during 1952-53
to 1964-65.
(per cent per annum)
sl. no. state production area productivity
(0) (1) (2) (3) (4)
1 Punjab 4.56 1.90 2.61
2 Gujarat 4.55 0.45 4.09
3 Tamil Nadu 4.17 1.10 3.04
4 Mysore 3.54 0.81 2.71
5 Bihar 2.97 0.71 2.25
6 Maharashtra 2.93 0.44 2.45
7 Rajasthan 2.74 2.85 (-)0.11
8 Andhra Pradesh 2.71 0.26 2.45
9 Madhya Pradesh 2.49 1.28 1.21
10 Orissa 2.48 0.81 1.66
11 Kerala 2.27 1.30 0.96
12 West Bengal 1.94 0.59 1.34
13 Uttar Pradesh 1.66 0.72 0.94
14 Assam 1.17 1.25 (-)0.08
15 All-India 3.01 1.21 1.7
NOTE : Figures for Jammu and Kashmir and Nagaland not available.
Figures for Punjab relate to erstwhile Punjab.
It would be seen that a number of States in particular Punjab, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu, recorded increases in production appreciably higher than the national average. Significantly the rate of yield improvement in several states was also higher in comparison with the all-India average. In some districts in Punjab and Tamil Nadu, production increased by as much as 7 per cent a year and several districts spread all over the country recorded increases in production of about 5 per cent per annum.
II
OBJECTIVES, TARGETS AND STRATEGY OF FOURTH PLAN
Objectives 7.16. In the agricultural sector, the Fourth Plan has two main objectives. The first objective is to provide the conditions necessary for a sustained increase of about 5 per cent per annum over the next decade. The second objective is to enable as large a section of the rural population as possible, including the small cultivator, the farmer in dry areas and the agricultural labourer, to participate in development and share its benefits. Accordingly, the priority programmes of development in agriculture fall broadly into two categories, namely, those which aim at maximising production and those which aim at remedying imbalances.
7.17. The creation of conditions necessary for a five per cent agricultural growth is basic to the approach of the Fourth Plan. The crucial position of agriculture and the extreme urgency of achieving rapid growth in production have been brought home, more than ever before, by the experience of recent years. The pace of development in the agricultural sector sets a limit to the growth of industry, of ex- ports, and of the economy as a whole and constitutes a major condition for achieving economic and social stability and improving the levels of living and nutrition for the mass of people. The success of the Fourth Plan will, therefore, be judged, above all, by performance in agriculture.
Targets of Production 7.18 The specific targets of production corresponding to the overall objectives of agricultural growth have to be related to the demand likely to K2 generated by the projected growth of per capita income and consumption as well as the expected growth of population. An important consideration in determining the targets is the objective of eliminating imports of foodgrains on concessional terms, Except in the case of long staple cotton which will continue to be imported for sonic time more, the aim. is to ensure that imports of other agricultural commodities should be reduced as soon as possible. At the same time the targets have been determined after the consideration of the technical and economic feasibility of expanding production in the course of the next five years. While a detailed commodity-wise statement is given at Annexure 1. a few selected targets for foodgrains and major commercial crops together with comparative figures of estimated base-level are indicated below :
TABLE 5 : Selected Targets of Crop Production
sl. no. item unit base level fourth plan target
(0) (1) (2) (3) (4)
1 foodgrains million 98 129
tonnes
2 jute mill. bales 6.2 7.4
3 cotton mill. bales 6 8
4 oilseeds mill. tonnes 8.5 10.5
5 sugarcane(gur) mill. tonnes 12 15