25
Table 2.5 Projected Age Structure
(Percent)
Year 1990 1992 1995 1997 2000 2005 2007
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
0-4 133.30 12.77 12.13 11.71 11.14 10.30 9.96
5-14 23.22 22.89 22.49 22.09 21.58 20.08 19.48
15-59 57.07 57.69 58.43 59.06 59.78 61.55 62.26
60+ 6.41 6.65 6.95 7.14 7.50 8.07 8.30
Source: Report of the Standing Committee of Experts
on Population Projections(1989).
Note : Projections for 2007 are based on similar
assumptions as adopted by the Standing Committee (1989).
Table 2.4 Percentage of Eligible Couples Effectively Protected
Rural Urban Combined
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Below Poverty 22.65 28.73 23.51
Above Poverty 26.74 39.72 29.93
ALL 25.40 37.58 28.60
Note: Estimated from data on fractile groups reported in NSS
report. (42nd Round, 1986-87)
risen to a level of 6.65 per cent in 1992 and will rise to a level of 8.3 per cent by 2007.
2.3.10 The number and the proportion of females in the reproductive age group 15 to 44 will keep on rising over the next 15 years. (Table 2.6) Increase in the proportion and the number of females in the reproductive age group will lead to higher fertility rates and hence it will require a much higher degree of effort to achieve a certain reduction in birth rates corresponding to the effort/success ratio in the past.
2.3.11 The problems of the aged has not been felt much so far since the society has been overwhelmed with the problem of the children. The proportion of older people has been small and the traditional family structure has been able to accommodate the needs of the aged well. This is changing now. The proportion of the aged in the society will be growing. In the wake of modernisation and urbanisation more and more families are shifting away from land as the main source of livelihood thus weakening further the main basis of Joint family system. Families are becoming nuclear. Taking care of the aged will need more attention in the coming decades.
Table 2.6 Women in the Reproductive Age Group
Year No. of Female Ratio of No. of
Aged 15-44 Females Aged 15-
(Millions) 44 to total
Females(%)
(1) (2) (3)
1990 183.00 45.75
1992 191.89 46.02
1995 205.00 46.49
1997 214.31 46.95
2000 226.00 47.08
2005 252.00 48.55
2007 262.40 48.84
Source: Report of the Standing Committee of Experts
on Population Projections (1989).
Note: Estimates for 2007 are based on similar
assumptions as adopted by the Standing Committee (1989).
26
2.3.12 Urban population is expected to be 224 millions, i.e., 26.04 per cent of the total Population in 1992. Urban population for the next decade is projected on the basis of average annual rate of growth observed during the twenty year period i.e., 1971-91, rather than the decelerated rate of growth during 1981-91 as this may not represent the long-term trend of urbanisation. In the post 2001, period the rate of growth of urban population is assumed to be gradually declining in line with the assumed reduction in the rate of natural increase, but the share of urban population is expected to increase continuously. As per the projections, India will enter the 21st century with an urban population of 307 million (30.50 per cent of the total) which is likely to reach a level of 376 million (34.2 per cent of the total) by 2007. It is also estimated that the number of cities with a population of more than one million will grow up from 12 in 1981 to around 40 in 2001. In 1981, 218 class I cities accounted for more than 60 per cent of the total urban population of the country. In 1991, class I cities contained 139.7 million people (excluding J&K), accounting for 65.2 per cent of total urban population and the metropolitan cities alone had 70.76 million of them. These cities are the main hubs of economic activity. Among them are also some of the cities which are already under strain because the infrastructure is over-stretched and inadequate. Vast areas of these cities have degenerated into slums. Housing is in a critical short supply. In 1981, out of a total urban population of nearly 160 million, 32 to 40 million were estimated to be in slums alone. Thus, 20 to 25 per cent of the urban population live with multiple deprivation. This is the result of the gap between the demand and the legal/formal supply of houses.
2.3.13 Viewed in a longer time perspective, a fast pace of urbanisation is inevitable. In fact the growth in urban population during the eighties has been less than expected. The only question to be asked is: "how to make the process more compatible with the overall economic development pattern and environmentally less damaging"? A widely dispersed urban growth will prevent the push of large numbers towards metropolitan cities and will also be beneficial to rural development. This implies vastly dispersed infrastructure, reaching out even to smaller urban and rural areas. A push to such a strategy needs to be given through creation of communication, transport, health and educational infrastructure in large number of small towns and in rural areas.
2.3.14 The successive quinquennial rounds of the National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) indicate trends in Labour Force Partici- pation Rates (LFPR) and enable projections of labour force being made for the coming years. Table 2.7 on the Usual Principal Status LFPR shows that LFPR's have declined over the years. However, as the growth in labour force has been mainly influenced by the rate of growth of population, the labour force has continued to
Table 2.7 Overall Labour Force Participation Rates (1977-78 to
1987-88)
Year Labour Force Participatio
Rural Urban
Male Female Male Female
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
32nd Round (1977-78) 54.9 26.2 53.2 15.0
38th Round 91983) 54.0 25.2 53.1 13.0
43rd Round(1987-88) 53.2 25.4 52.8 12.9
*Usual Princpal Status.
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Table 2.8 Labour Force* Projections by Age - Group
(Millions)
Addition to Labour Force
Age-Groups 1992 1997 2002 2007 1992-97 1997-02 2002-07
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
5 + 328.94 364.31 400.75 440.74 35.37 36.44 39.99
15 + 316.65 351.61 387.92 427.87 34.96 36.31 39.95
15-59 294.60 325.87 357.82 393.02 31.27 31.95 35.20
* Usual Principal Status.
grow despite the declining trend in the participation rates. Usual Principal Status Labour Force Projections for the period 1992-2007 are given in Table 2.8.
The Social Development Perspective 2.4.1 There has been a significant improvement in the living conditions of the people on an average. In certain states of the country,the life expectancy, infant mortality, literacy, consumption of food and cloth and availability of basic services such as drinking water and domestic electricity have reached satisfactory levels. But there are considerable disparities across States, between the urban and the rural areas, between males and females, and between those who work in organised sector and those who are in the unorganised sector. In the perspective of the next 10 to 15 years, we have to concentrate on reducing these disparities and to improve the quality of life of an average Indian citizen. The development perspective emphasises improvement in the income opportunities of the less privileged sections and in the pockets of gross underdevelopment. An improvement in basic social services and reduction in infant mortality is a pre- condition for realising the, desired restraint on population growth. The long term targets in terms of important social indicators are set in Table 2.9. These are average indicators for the population as a whole, and the averages hide the disparities. But, further sig- nificant improvements in the averages cannot be brought about without reducing the disparities.
2.4.2 The census of India 1981 reported an overall literacy rate of 36.2 per cent. This was a considerable improvement over literacy rate of 16.7 per cent in 1951, though, this is still a poor showing for 30 years of planning. Census 1991 reports literacy rate for population aged 7 years and above as 52 per cent. The regional disparities are wide and female literacy is still at a very low level. As per 1991 Census, the female literacy was only 39.4 per cent and mate literacy was 63.9 per cent. Data on literacy are also available from various rounds of the National Sample Survey. Even though the definitions followed are the same, there are differences between the results obtained from Census and the NSS rounds. NSS rounds give somewhat higher rates of literacy. The NSS estimates may be more indicative of the real situation These data are presented in table 2.10. It is significant that during less than five years, i.e., from 1983 to 1987-88, literacy rates increased by 4 percentage points. It appears that the literacy drive will pick up momentum now. Since literacy is high among the younger age-group and is very low among the older age-group, with the cohort movement, more literates will be replacing illiterates. The adult literacy programmes and efforts at universalisation of elementary education will add further to the improvement in literacy rates.
2.4.3 It is more important, in this context, to concentrate on those regions/districts where literacy rates are abysmally low. Of the 412 districts, 243 had a literacy rate below the national average and 193 had female literacy rate below 20 per cent in 1981 (as per the conventional measure based on census data). The 1981 census recorded a work participation
28
Notes(a) Estimate based on SRS Data
(b) Based on assumptions implicit in the population projections made by the Standing Committee of Experts on Population Projection (1989).
(c) Estimate for 1988-89 based on NSS 44th Round.
@ The figure indicates the number of villages not having any source of drinking water by end of March 1992 (Source : Ministry of Rural Development)
lpcd Litres per capita per day
* Estimates for 1986-87 based on NSS 42nd Round.
rate of 4.3 per cent for children aged 0-14. Also the NSSO (1983) had revealed that there were 17.36 million working children below 15 years of age. The task before the country is to bring these children back to the class rooms. At least 3-4 years of schooling is necessary for literacy to be permanent. The focus now should be in getting the community actively involved in achieving cent per cent enrolment and in retaining all the children in the school atleast through the primary stages.
2.4.4 Significant improvement in the health status of people is visible from the fact that the expectation of life at birth has increased from 32 to 58 years since independence. It is predicted that it would reach a level of 65 years during 2001-2006, the female expectancy being still higher. Already during 1986-91, Kerala had a female life expectancy at birth of 74 years, which is comparable to most developed countries. The Death Rate in India has also declined. A number of public health and medical care programmes like, national small pox eradication, malaria control, tuberculosis control, cholera control and immunisation of children against diphtheria, tetanus, whooping cough etc. launched by the Government have helped to improve health and longevity of the people.
2.4.5 While efforts at dealing with the epidemics have been successful, meeting the health needs of the population has been far from satisfactory. One crucial indication of population's health status is infant mortality rate. Its contribution to total death rate is high and it has great psychological impact on motivation to limit the family. Contribution of infant deaths to total deaths is about 28 per cent, being 20 per cent in the urban areas and 29 per cent in the rural areas. Infant mortality rate has come down to 78 per thousand, out of which about 60 per cent are
29
Note:- 1. Figures in Col 7 and 8 exclude persons in the respective age groups from the denominator only.
2. Figures in Col.9 excludes persons in the age-group (0-14) from both the numerator and denominator.
3. @, $ and * for NSS 32nd, 38th and 43rd Rounds respectively.
4. # census.
neo-natal deaths. It is estimated that 30 to 40 per cent of infants are born with low birth weights and about 45 per cent of infant deaths are due to low birth weights. Immunisation status is far from satisfactory. The NSS data also show that the mothers registered for pre-natal care were 21 per cent in rural and 47 per cent in urban areas, and those registered for post-natal care were 12.6 per cent in rural and 23.8 per cent in urban areas.
2.4.6 The National Health Policy has accepted the responsibility to ensure "Health for All by the Year 2000". An infant mortaility rate of 60 per cent and 100 per cent immunization of pregnant mothers and school children are aimed at, apart from a number of other health related targets. This calls for substantial improvement in the medical and public health facilities, particularly in the rural areas.
2.4.7 The sources for the availability of drinking water and light, as revealed by National Sample Survey data for the years 1973- 74 and 1988-89, are presented in table 2.11. There has been considerable improvement over this period. However, in 1988-89 tap water was available to 15.5% of rural and 72% of urban housholds. The Technology Mission on Drinking Water in Villages and Related Water Management has an objective to cover all "problem villages. "Of the 5.75 lakh villages in the country 1.62 lakh villages were identified as "problem villages" at the beginning of the Seventh Plan. By the end of March 1992, about 3000 villages remain without any source of safe drinking water. There are however, still about 1.5 lakh villages/habitations where per capita supply of water is very meagre(less than 40 litres per day) or part of population remains unserved or the water sources are polluted. Population covered by these potable water has increased from 56.3 per cent in rural and 72.9 per cent in urban areas in March 1985 to 78.4 per cent and 84.9 per cent in March 1992 respectively. The problems of supplying clean drinking water is so varied and diverse that innovative area specific cost effective technologies are to be evolved.
2.4.8 Population covered with sanitation facilities is very low-as low as 2.7 per cent having individual sanitary latrines in rural areas. An integrated approach to rural and urban sanitation linked to programmes in health and education is called for.
2.4.9 It can be seen from table 2.11 that as recently as in 1988- 89, only 27 per cent of rural households and 75 per cent of urban households had electricity available for lighting purposes, the situation improved considerably since 1973-74. The State level data shows greater dispari-
30
Table 2.11 Percentage Distribution of Households by Source-wise
Availability of Drinking Water and Lighting
28th Round (1973-74) 44th Round(1988-89)
Rural Urban Rural Urban
(0) (1) (2) (3) (4)
Sources of Drinking Water
1.Tap 4.69 66.97 15.47 72.11
2.Well 65.84 18.05 39.12 9.12
3.Tube-well & Hand pump 15.59 12.69 39.10 17.20
4. Others 13.88 2.29 6.31 1.57
Total 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
Sources of Lighting
1.Electricity 6.55 53.48 26.92 75.12
2. Others 93.45 46.52 73.08 24.88
Total 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
Source - National Sample Survey Organisation.