TRANSPORT AND COMMUNICATIONS
THE rapid development of the economy over the past decade has placed demands on the transportation system, the magnitude of which is not generally appreciated. The railways, on whom the main burden falls, are handling today 100 per cent more freight traffic and 27 per cent more passenger traffic than they were handling before the commencement of the First Five Year plan, and this despite the fact that at the be- ginning of the period the railways, as a result of the war, had heavy accumulations of over-aged stock and of track awaiting renewal. Dur- ing the same period the capacity of the road transport industry has more than doubled and that of the major ports has also increased by about 85 per cent.
The experience of this decade should serve to focus attention on the crucial importance of transport and communications in economic planning. Although in both Plans a sizeable proportion of the total outlay was devoted to their development and this has made possible the considerable expansion in transport capacity that has taken place, nevertheless it is only with difficulty that the transportation system has been able to meet the growing demands. The railways in particular have, throughout most of the period, been working under some measure of strain and at times have been unable to handle all the traffic that has been offered. With the economy expanding at a rapid rate, it is likely that these conditions will persist at least for some years.
EXPERIENCE OF THE FIRST TWO PLANS-A BRIEF REVIEW 2. The following Table shows the outlay on the programmes relating to transport and communications in the first two Plans :
Table I : Outlay on transport and communications programmes in the First and Second Plans.
(Rs. crores)
First Plan Second Plan
programmes actual
expendi- provision estimated
ture expenditure
1 2 3 4
Transport:
railways 258.5 900.0 860.1
roads & road
transport 146.8 262.7 241.8
ports and harbours 27.6 45.3 33.4+
shipping 18.7 47.7 52.7
civil air transport 23.2 43.0 49.0
other programmes
in the transport
sector 1.9 10.4 4.2
total-transport 476.7 1309.1 1241.2
communications :
posts and
telegraphs 39.5 63.0 50.6
other communications
including broadcas-
ting 6.6 13.0 8.0
total-communications 46.1 76.0 58.6
total-transport and
communications 522.8 1385.1 1299.8
As compared with the outlay in the First Plan, the provision for transport and communications in the Second Plan was, in absolute terms, considerably larger, and also somewhat larger in proportion to the total outlay, the share of transport and communications having risen from 27 per cent in the First Plan to 29 per cent in the Second. The progress on the programmes in this sector has, on the whole, been satisfactory.
3. The main task in the field of transportation in the First Five Year Plan was the rehabilitation of over-aged assets which had been subjected to great strain during the preceding decade. Large amounts had to be set apart for rehabilitation of railway rolling stock and for track renewal as also for replacement of over-aged shipping tonnage and equipment of ports and harbours. On account of the heavy replacement demands, the need for expansion could not be fully met in the First Plan. In the Second Plan again a large provision had to be made, particularly In the case of the railways, for rehabilitation of over-aged assets. The emphasis in the Second Plan, however, shifted to the programmes required to augment line capacity on different sections of the railways and to the procurement of additional rolling stock to meet the growing demand for railway transport arising from the increased production in the agricultural and industrial sectors of the economy. The rolling stock on line has been expanded as shown in the Table below. The wagon-holding of the railways at the end of 1960-61 would have stood at a higher figure than 341,041, if the programme
*Excludes Rs. 15 crores transferred from the plan of the railways to the plan of the Posts and Telegraphs Department and the power supply authorities in connection with the railway electrification programme and Rs. 3.5 crores transferred to the Ministry of Transport and Communications on account of Vishakhapatnam port.
+ Excludes expenditure met out of loans from IBRD and ports' own resources.
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for wagon procurement in the Second Plan had not fallen behind schedule mainly owing to lack of timely supplies of steel.
Table 2: Rolling stock on line as on 31 st March, 1951, 1956 and 1961.
(numbers)
rolling stock 1951 1956 1961
(estimate)
locomotives 8461 9172 10554
coaches (units) 20502 23155 28171
wagons (in terms of 4
wheelers) 222441 268493 341041
Over the ten-year period extensive line capacity works have been undertaken by the railways. These include the doubling of about 1300 miles of single track, the electrification of about 800 miles, the remodelling of a large number of existing yards and the construction of several new ones. The new lines added to the system have amounted only to about 1200 miles; in addition about 400 miles of lines dismantled during the war were restored during the period. The programme has been largely confined to lines needed either to meet the urgent operational requirements of the railways or in connection with the expansion of the iron and steel and coal industries.
4. There has been, on the other hand, a large extension of the road mileage over the last ten years. It is expected that the mileage of surfaced roads will have increased from 97,500 miles in 1950-51 to 144,000 miles in 1960-61, and that of unsurfaced roads from 151,000 to well over 250,000 miles. A sizeable expansion has also taken place in the capacity of the road transport industry over this period. The number of goods vehicles on the road nearly doubled-from about 81,000 in 1950-51 to 160,000 in 1960-61. The number of passenger vehicles, i.e., stage carriages, also increased during the period from 34,000 to about 50,000, i.e. by about 45 per cent. The increase in the capa- city of the road transport industry has really been substantially more than is indicated by these figures; for the proportion of the heavier types of diesel vehicles to the total number of vehicles on the road has gone up considerably during the period.
5. The expansion in the capacity of the ports and harbours, particularly the major ports, over the period of the first two Plans, has also been substantial. During the First Plan the capacity of the major ports increased from about 20 million tons to 25 million tons. During the Second Plan their capacity is estimated to have increased to about 37 million tons. Several projects were taken up in the Second Plan which are still under execution and, on their completion, the total capacity of the major ports is likely to be over 45 million tons.
6. The tonnage of Indian shipping increased from about 3.9 lakh GRT in 1950-51 to about 4.8 lakh GRT at the end of the First Plan period and is estimated to have increased to about 9 lakh GRT at the end of the Second Five Year Plan. The expansion of tonnage on the coast, however, has been comparatively small-from 2.1 lakh GRT in 1950-51, the coastal tonnage is estimated to have expanded only to 2.9 lakh GRT in 1960-61.
7. The capacity of civil air transport has increased considerably since 1953 when the air services were nationalised. The capacity in ton miles offered by the Indian Airlines Corporation went up from about 46 millions in 1953-54 to about 69 millions in 1960-61 and that offered by Air India International over the period from 17 millions to 103 millions.
TRENDS IN RAIL AND ROAD TRAFFIC 8. The following Table shows the trends in traffic carried by railways and road transport over the period :
Table 3 Volume of goods and passenger traffic carried by railways and road transport* at the end of the First and Second Plans.
(millions)
goods traffic passenger trafic
railways road railways road
year
tons to ton passengers passenger passenger
originating miles miles originating miles miles
1950-51 91.5 26980 3358 1284 41332 14374
1955-56 114.0 36434 5470 1275 38774 19559
1960-61 154.0 54700 10600 1624 48600 30000
(estimated)
*While the figures for railways pertain to the actual traffic carried over the Indian Government railway system, those for road transport represent only estimates worked out on certain assumptions regarding utilisation of vehicles quoted in the Preliminary Report of the Committee on Transport Policy and Coordination (1961).
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The average lead of freight traffic on the railways has increased during the period from 292 miles to 354 miles. Thus, while in terms of tons originating, the volume of traffic on the railways has increased over the period by about 69 per cent, in terms of ton miles, it has gone up by over 100 per cent. The average lead of passenger trafic has declined during the period from 31.9 miles to 29.9 miles. This is because there has been relatively a much larger increase in suburban traffic than in the inter-city traffic carried by the railways. The figures for suburban passenger traffic are available only from 1951-52 onwards. The volume of suburban traffic increased from 4247 million passenger miles in 1951-52 to 7500 million passenger miles in 1960-61 i.e. by 77 per cent as against a 24 per cent increase in the overall passenger miles during the period.
During this period, the freight traffic in terms of ton miles carried by road transport is estimated to have increased threefold, while passenger traffic in terms of passenger miles carried by stage carriages (excluding taxis and private cars) has more than doubled.
9. In the Second Five Year Plan, the total originating traffic on the railways was expected to increase from 120 million tons in 1955-56 to 181 million tons in 1960-61, i.e. by about 51 per cent. The provision in the Plan was considered inadequate to enable the railways to handle this traffic and it was expected that their capa- city would fall short of the needs by about 10 per cent in respect of rolling stock and 5 per cent in respect of line capacity. According to the revised estimate made in 1958, the originating traffic on the railways was expected to increase to 168 million tons in the last year of the Second Five Year Plan and certain adjustments were made in the railway programme to enable them to take steps to acquire additional rolling stock. The volume of traffic actually carried by the railways in 1960-61 is estimated at 154 million tons. On account of a substantial increase in the average lead of traffic, however, the volume of traffic handled by the railways in terms of ton miles in 1960-61 is somewhat more than what was originally provided for in the Second Plan and the railways have recently been working under some strain. Difficulties have been experienced in the movement of coal, particularly from the Bengal-Bihar coalfields. This is partly due to changes in the pattern of coal production and in the plans for supply of raw materials to the steel plants, resulting in longer leads for the railways than were originally anticipated, and partly to a shortfall in some of the railway development programmes, notably wagon procurement.
10. Viewed in retrospect, the experience of the last ten years is instructive from the point of view of future planning. The demand for transport has risen at a substantially faster rate than the increase in national income or the growth of production in any major sector of the economy over the period. While the national income has increased by about 42 per cent, the index of agricultural production has gone up by about 41 per cent and that of industrial production by 94 per cent, the traffic on the railways measured in ton miles has doubled and that on road transport more than doubled over the period. India's experience over the last decade is in line with the experience of several industrially advanced countries in their early stages of growth and these trends may well be expected to continue in the period of the next few Plans.*
COORDINATION OF TRANSPORT : APPROACH IN THE THIRD PLAN 11. The Committee on Transport Policy and Coordination (Neogy Committee), which was constituted in July, 1959, to advise on long- term transportation policy, and against the background of this policy, to define the role of the various means of transport in the next five to ten years, submitted its Preliminary Report to the Planning Commission in February, 1961. In its Report, the Committee has presented detailed factual material pertaining to road-rail coordination and has raised issues considered important from the point of view of formulating a long-term policy for the country. The Committee's final report is not expected to be ready for some time. When its recommendations become available, the programmes for transport in the Third Plan will be reviewed. There are, however, certain general considerations affecting the development of transport over the next few years which can appropriately be mentioned at this stage. In the first place, it must be recognised that during the Third Plan, the railways will inevitably have to continue to carry the bulk of the traffic in heavy goods like coal, iron ore and other mate- rials for the steel plants, etc. As will be explained in a subsequent paragraph, about 88 per cent of the total additional traffic likely to be offered to the railways over the Third Plan period consists of such goods. Heavy investment on the railways is, therefore, unavoidable in order to enable them to handle this traffic.
12. Secondly, while there is a general shortage of transport in the country today, which is likely to continue for some time, this will not necessarily preclude competition between rail and road transport over certain routes and in respect of certain commodities. It is difficult at present to assess what will be the extent of such competition and what impact the expansion programme of the road transport industry will have on the railways and vice versa. The Committee on Transport Policy and Coordination is expected to suggest measures to secure coordination of rail and road transport. It is clear, however,
*Committee on Transport Policy and Coordination : preliminary Report (1961).
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even at this stage-indeed the Committee has drawn attention to it-that the railways in preparing detailed plans for increasing line capacity over various sections of the railway system will have to take account of the possible future development of road transport in the regions concerned. In regard to proposals for the construction of new railway lines considerations of coordination have still greater importance. As in the first two Plans, most of the new lines to be opened in the Third Plan are required either to meet the operational needs of the railways or for the movement of basic commodities like coal and mineral ores. But there have been numerous other demands for new lines from all over the country. The Committee on Transport Policy and Coordination has referred to the experience of some of the industrially advanced countries where, in recent years, railways have had to close down a number of unremunerative branch lines. It has also pointed out that the volume of traffic handled on certain new lines constructed or relaid in India during the past ten years is much below the capacity of these lines which thus remains under-utilised. The Committee has raised the question whether any well-defined criteria could be laid down on the basis of which proposals for new lines could be selected from time to time as part of the railway development programme. According to the Committee, "where a choice exists between a railway line and a road, careful examination may be required before a decision is taken .... one approach that could be considered is that in respect of lines which on technical studies are found to be of an unremunerative character, and have to be taken up either on strategic grounds or for other social and political consi- derations. Government or the parties concerned should subsidise the railways directly."
13. This leads to the third consideration which must be kept in mind. The Indian Railways are at present not merely solvent but are making a sizeable contribution to the resources for the Third Plan. On the other band, in many countries railways in recent years have become losing concerns and in India too some unfavourable factors affecting the financial prospects of the railways have begun to manifest themselves to which the Committee on Transport Policy has drawn attention. The Committee has also raised questions with regard to the future of the railways' obligations towards the general ex- chequer. In view of the large fresh investments made in the Indian Railways over the past ten years and proposed for the Third Plan-the capital-at-charge of the railways increased from Rs. 834 crores in 1950-51 to Rs. 1559 crores in 1960-61 and it is expected to rise to Rs. 2313 crores by 1965-66-these matters assume con siderable importance. Prima facie, it is desirable that financially the Indian Railways should not take the downward path followed by the railway systems in some other countries.
These and other issues pertaining to coordination of the various means of transportation in the country will be considered further when the final report of the Committee on Transport Policy and Coordination is available.
ALLOTMENT FOR TRANSPORT AND COMMUNICATIONS IN THE THIRD PLAN 14. The amount allotted for the programmes relating to transport and communications in the public sector in the Third Plan is Rs. 1486 crores, and is distributed between the various programmes as shown in the Table below :