*The sub-group general labourers' of the 1951 Census Occupational classification has been left out because it is not possible to apportion it properly between the two broad groups.
61
EMPLOYMENT ASPECTS OF THE PLAN
expenditure in the public sector in 1955-56 has been of the order of Rs. 600-620 crores as against the developmental outlay of Rs. 224 crores in 1950-51. In the last year. of the first plan, outlay in the public sector is expected to be higher than the corresponding amount in 1950-51, by about Rs.400 crores. It is likely that as compared to the last year of the first plan, the increase in the developmental outlay in the last year of the second plan will be of the order of Rs. 600 crores. Besides, it is clear from the pattern of investment described in Chapter III that a much larger expenditure is contemplated on transport and heavy industries which have in the short term a relatively smaller employment content.
PROGRAMMES FOR SPECIAL AREAS 19. It is not enough to assess the employment potential of the plan in overall terms. Regional distribution of employment opportunities will have to be attempted. The main difficulty in this assessment is that regional details regarding the central plans and those of industries in the private sector in terms of employment are not yet worked out. But some of the general considerations regarding the direction in which efforts at enlarging employment opportunites in special areas will have to be made, are discussed below.
20. An aspect of employment which deserves special mention is the problem of areas of acute unemployment and under-employment. In some areas chronic under-employment exists and earnings are too low even with reference to average standards for the country. Such situations are not unknown in some of the more developed countries. For instance, in the United States, there are. pockets where unemployment is substantially higher as compared to the general level of unemployment in the economy as a whole. Special programmes were taken up in the United Kingdom for depressed areas- Experience of the measures taken in these countries indicates that one of the important pre-requisites for framing policies is a thorough study of such pockets. While the recent studies give sonic indication of the overall magnitude of the problem, fuller data are needed for different areas, regarding for instance the availability of local skills, the material resources, facilities available, urgent requirements of the community etc. Such surveys should be undertaken in different States and if sonic special schemes are drawn up for depressed areas by local communities, it may be possible to give them the necessary assistance. The important point is that the foundation of the programmes to increase opportunities available for employment is necessarily based on the interest and initiative of the local people and communities. Cooperative effort by local communities, private enterprise and the State and Central Governments can make possible a rapid improvement in the levels of living in such areas. The role that local leadership can play in the formulation and implementaion of suitable programmes in such areas is obvious.
21. For reasons stated earlier, the directions in which public policy should proceed cannot be precisely envisaged at this stage. Conditions of such areas, as are relatively poor in natural resources, may in some cases necessitate planned measures for transferring surplus labour to other parts. But generally it may be that when large numbers of workers move to areas other than their own com- plications are likely to arise. As such, bringing gainful work to the doors of people in distress may be a better way of dealing with their problems. Migration in suitable cases, however, should not be ruled out. Government can increase employment opportunities in such areas by (i) giving priority to them in the matter of location of projects in the public sector unless other considerations justify the location of such projects elsewhere, (ii) providing loans to local businessmen and industrialists at relatively favourable terms, (iii) reserving a certain percentage of contracts in the public sector for persons belonging to these areas, and (iv) adoption of other fiscal measures to induce inflow of private capital. Concrete steps to be taken in problem areas of this kind will necessarily have to await fuller investigations.
EDUCATED UNEMPLOYED 22. Unemployment among the educated has to be viewed as a part of general unemployment in the economy. The reason why a country like ours finds a sizeable number of unemployed, and among them the educated, is lack of sufficient development over a number of years to absorb entrants to the about force. Educated unemployment, however, assumes a special significance mainly because of the following factors: (a) rightly or wrongly there is an impression among the public that investment in education by an individual should yield for him a return in terms of a remunerative job: (b) an educated person naturally looks for a job suited to the particular type of education he has received with the result that there has been an abundance of supply in regard to certain occupations and professions and shortage to others, depending oil the development of education in the country. Then, again, there are regional preferences shown by the educated which complicate the problem; and (c) there is a general disinclination among the educated to look for employments other than office jobs.
23. To formulate programmes specially designed to alleviate unemployment among the educated, a Study Group was set up in September, 1955. The Group has
62
SECOND FIVE YEAR PLAN
recently submitted its report. It has estimated that in the next 5 years, 14.5 lakhs of educated persons will be added to the labour force. The Group has defined persons with and above matriculation and equivalent education standard as `educated'. On the basis of the report on a preliminary enquiry on urban unemployment undertaken by the Directorate of National Sample Survey, the Group has placed the number of educated unemployed at 5.5 lakhs. The estimates made by the Group are corroborated by certain other surveys independently undertaken in universities which have been published after the report of the Study Group. The problem to be tackled during the next five years, if educated unemployment is to be eradicated, is the creation of about 2 million jobs for this group. As against this task, the group has estimated that the Central and State Government projects included in the second five year plan are likely to yield about a million jobs. Another 2.4 lakhs of educated persons will secure employment by replacement of persons who would retire in the next 5 years. In addition, the private sector will absorb about 2 lakhs of persons, leaving the size of the problem substantially unchanged during the period of the plan. The Group has emphasized the regional aspect of the problem and has suggested that in some States like Travancore-Cochin and West Bengal, the situation requires to be carefully watched.
24. According to the Group the question of the educated unemployed cannot be viewed in purely quantitative terms. It is perhaps enough to say that a certain number of jobs are required for unskilled or uneducated categories, but when it comes to making a similar statement with regard to the existing educated unemployed it is necessary to be more specific about the kind of education for which job opportunities are required to be created, The regional and occupational aspects associated with the problem have to be considered separately. Regional immobility among the educated, except at fairly high levels, comes in the way of the fuller utilisation of such personnel. Instances are not wanting where surpluses in certain categories of educated and trained personnel are reported at some employment exchanges, while these very categories are in short supply at others. In such cases adjustment of supply with demand becomes, to a considerable extent, a question of providing suitable incentives and opportunities. The other aspect, namely the occupational, requires considerable advance planning, both in assessing the demand for such personnel and in making arrangements for future supply.
25. Against this background of the magnitude and character of the problem, the Group has suggested certain fields as capable of providing employment opportunities for the educated. The main criterion laid down by the Group for selection of schemes is that these are urgently needed for the envisaged institutional reorientation of production relations and/or that they deserve higher priority in connection with economic development in general. In the former category of schemes the Group has included strengthening of co- operative organisations in the spheres of production and distribution. Their importance in the context of the social order visualised in the near future needs no emphasis. There seems to be ample scope for expanding organisational, administrative and supervisory training. Production and marketing of goods in small industries, it is suggested, should be taken up by the Cooperatives. The scope for absorption of the educated in actual production in village industries is restricted mainly because of unemployment and under-employment among artisans already engaged in production in this sector. Heavy industries on the other hand will demand technical personnel of a different kind. Between these two lies a large area of small industries which the Group considers appropriate for the purpose of providing employment opportunities for the educated. It has divided industries of this kind into three categories:
(i) manufacturing industries, namely, hand-tools and small tools, sports goods, furniture, etc.;
(ii) feeder industries like foundries, forge shops, tool and gauge making shops, automobile shops, machinery parts, electroplating and galvanising shops and so on;
(iii) servicing industries like repair shops for automobiles, bicycles and other machinery.
26. Another group of schemes where it is possible to absorb the educated is Cooperative Goods Transport. The programme suggested in this field is the setting up of 1200 intra-city operational units with 5 vehicles on an average and another 240 inter-city operational cooperatives with an average fleet of 25 vehicles. The Group has also recommended the setting up of orientation camps which would help remove the disinclination on the part of the educated to undertake manual work and to create in them selfconfidence and a healthy outlook. Such camps, according to the Group, will assist in discovering the vocational aptitude of the youth and if a liaison is established with prospective employers, it will be possible for the latter to pick up educated persons from the camp for suitable employment.
27. The schemes proposed by the Study Group involve a gross outlay of Rs. 130 crores and are expected to provide additional employment to the tune of 2.35 lakhs of persons. The break-up of the total outlay, recoveries and the employment potential are given in the following table:
63
EMPLOYMENT ASPECTS OF THE PLAN
TABLE III
(Rs. crores)
Estimated Reco- Net Cost Employ-
Schemes gross out- veries ment
lay potential
(numbers)
Small Scale Industries 84.0 58.3 25.7 1,50,000
Cooperative Goods
Transport 20.0 18.0 2.0 32,000
Schemes of State Govts. 19.0 9.5 9.5 53,000
Work and Orientation
Camps 7.1 Nil. 7.1 Nil.
TOTAL 130.1 85.8 44.3 2,35,000
Another set of recommendations which the Group has made for removing the hardship felt by the educated youth in having to wait indefinitely for securing jobs are: (i) improvement in the present system of recruitment to Government posts; (ii) provision of hostels; and (iii) establishment of university employment bureaux.
28. The recommendations of the Study Group require to be implemented on a pilot basis in order to watch the reactions of the educated to such schemes. Suitable provision has been made for this purpose and the Group has been asked to work out the details of these pilot schemes. If the response is adequate, larger provisions for more extensive experiment in this field could be made available.
29. Finally, it should be observed that the problem of educated unemployed calls for long-term measures. Ad-hoe measures designed to alleviate unemployment in the short run can hardly produce lasting results. Judged from past experience, the educated remained out of gainful occupations in part due to the fact that in its evolution the system of education has not been related sufficiently to our needs of economic development. This also explains to some extent why in the midst of unemployment among the educated shortages sometimes arise in the case of certain categories of educated personnel. The expansion of education and training facilities should, therefore, be closely linked to the future requirements of the economy and the growth of educational facilities in directions, which may accentuate further the problem of educated unemployed should be avoided. There should be systematic examination of openings for educated and trained persons in different categories and the necessary information should be widely disseminated through programmes of educational and vocational counselling, university employment bureaux, etc. Development of the cooperative sector in the rural economy and of smallscale and medium industries will offer growing opportunities for absorbing educated persons in gainful and productive work. Changes in the system of education. should keep in view these and other lines of development envisaged in the second five year plan, so that progressively those elements in the system of education which facilitate absorption and stimulate the expansion of employment opportunities are strengthened.
30. The foregoing analysis shows that with the effort envisaged during the second five year plan, additional employment opportunities will be provided to fresh entrants to the labour force. There will be a small addition to the working force engaged in agriculture, but as a result of the large programmes of agriculture, irrigation and rural community development which are to be undertaken, under-employment will be reduced and, after allowing for additions to the working force in agriculture, income per occupied person is likely to increase by about 17 per cent. In the field of village and small-scale industries the estimates given in this chapter take account only of work opportunities which are in the nature of full-time jobs, so that there will in addition be some measure of relief for underemployed artisans. Educated unemployed persons will also benefit as a result of the implementation of schemes in the plan as well as from those which are specially undertaken with a view to their training and orientation in various occupations.
31. These conclusions suggest that in spite of concerted efforts for the mobilisation of available resources and their optimum utilisation as proposed in the second plan, the impact on the two-fold problem of unemployment and under-employment will not be as large as the situation demands. There is at the same time a limit to the amount of investment which can be put through over the period of the plan. In the light of the emphasis placed on heavy industries, the scope for varying the pattern of investment is only marginal in character and any further adjustment of priorities may not yield much larger results in terms of employment. At the same time it is not always possible, in the existing state of knowledge, to take into account all the ramifications on employment of investments in heavy industries of the type envisaged in the plan. In this connection, it is necessary to stress the importance of implementing the plan so as to maximise its production and employment potential by coordinating complementary investments, planning the use of resources such as water, electricity, etc. which are created by the operation of the plan ensuring that the services of newly created institutions and agencies are brought effectively within the reach of those whom they are intended to benefit. As the plan proceeds, there should be continuous assessment of the additional employment obtained through its operation, so that suitable steps can be taken to ensure that the targets of employment are realised.