PROGRAMME FOR AGRICULTURE
THE first five year plan accorded pride of place to programmes for agriculture and community development. This was a natural priority in a plan seeking to raise the standard of living of the mass of the people, specially in rural areas, but it was also justified in the special circumstances of shortage and inflation which existed when the plan was formulated. More than any other factor, the increase in agricultural production which has taken place since 1952-53 has helped to end inflation, stabilise the economy and prepare the way for a higher rate of development during the second five year plan. The index of agricultural production, with 1949-50 as base, stood at 96 in 1950-51. It stood at 114 in 1953-54 and 1954-55, and is expected to be 115 in 1955-56. During the first plan, the national product increased by 18 per cent, and income in the agricultural sector increased in the same proportion. Increase in agricultural production also stimulated growth in other sectors of the economy.
REVIEW OF THE FIRST PLAN 2. The first five year plan envisaged the following increases in agricultural production:-
Production targets of Percentage
Commodity unit in base additional increase
year* production
Foodgrains Million tons 54.0 7.6 14
Major oilseeds 5.1 0.4 8
Sugarcane (gur) 5.6 0.7 13
Cotton Million bale 2.9 1.3 45
Jute 3.3 2.1 64
*Base year for foodgrains is 1949-51.
These targets of additional production, especially of foodgrains, were worked out in terms of the contribution anticipated from different programmes such as irrigation, use of larger quantities of fertilisers, supply of improved seeds and programmes of land reclama- tion and development. In other words, it was reckoned that if the developmental measures which the plan provided for were taken the production potential would increase to the extent indicated. In given years the actual levels of production for different commodities would necessarily vary with weather conditions and other factors such as the relative prices for different crops.
3. The course of agricultural production during the first plan is shown in the following statement:-
Community Unit 1951-52 1952-53 1953-54 1954-55 1955-56
Estimated
Cereals Million tons 42.9 49.2 58.3 55.3 55.0
Pulses 8.3 9.1 10.4 10.5 10.0
Total foodgrains 51.2 58.3 68.7 65.8 65.0
Major oilseeds 4.9 4.7 5.3 5.9 5.5
Sugarcane (gur) 6.1 5.0 4.4 5.5 5.8
Cotton Million bales 3.1 3.2 3.9 4.3 4.2
Jute 4.7 4.6 3.1 29* 4.0
*Partially revised estimate.
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It will be seen that during the period of the plan 1953-54 was the year of peak production for foodgrains and 1954-55 for oilseeds and cotton. In the case both of sugarcane and jute 1951-52 was the year of the highest production and although, after a period of decline, production improved towards the end of the plan, the targets which were set were not realised.
4. These trends emerge more clearly from the following statement which sets out the index numbers of agricultural production during the period of the plan for various groups of crops:
It is significant that the overall index of agricultural production has been maintained at a fairly high level during the past three years. This has been accompanied by some decline in foodgrains which account for about 67 per cent. of the total value of agricultural production. Trends have to be studied over a longer period before firm conclusions can be established.
5. The fact that agriculture depends on several unpredictable factors and agricultural targets must necessarily be in the nature of a tentative approach is illustrated by the actual statistics of increase in the production of individual foodgrains:-
Of the increase of 7.6 million tons anticipated over the first five year plan it was thought that roughly rice might account for 4 million tons, wheat for 2 million tons, gram and pulses for a million tons and other cereals for 0.5 million tons. The largest increase has occurred in millets and other cereals and the target for wheat production has been realised. On the whole, the expectation in respect of rice has not been fulfilled except in one specially favourable year. Nevertheless, the increase in food production made possible a reduc- tion in imports from the level of 4.73 million tons in 1950 and 3.86 million tons, in 1951 to less than a million
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tons during each of the past two years. This was a distinct advantage to the general economy of the country.
6. With the data available it would not be correct to attempt to relate too closely the progress of production in individual agricultural commodities to the actual progress made from year to year in implementing the programmes of the first five year plan. In the nature of things many factors operate at the same time. It is pro- posed that the data vearing on agricultural production, during the first five year plan, including the results of crop cutting surveys, should be investigated through a number of intensive and specially designed studies. Among the aspects on which more objective knowledge would be of considerable value in the making of policy and in assessing results, the following may be specially mentioned:
(1) production trends in different regions,
(2) effects of agricultural production and exten- sion programmes,
(3) range of influence of favourable and un- favourable conditions,
(4) review of yardsticks of additional production at present in use,
(5) yield trends for the principal crops, and
(6) cost of various agricultural production and extension measures in relation to the benefits realised.
7. From the limited information available it appears that among programmes of development which have contributed to increase in agricultural production during the first plan,minor irrigation works, increased use of fertilisers, land reclamation and development and the extension of area under cultivation have been specially significant. Minor irrigation programmes were being undertaken for several years before the plan. During the period 1943-44 to 1950-51 programmes of the value of about Rs. 62 crores were approved in pursuance of the grow-more-food campaign and a major portion of these were devoted to minor irrigation. During the first plan about 10 million acres of land are expected to have been brought under irrigation from minor works and about 6.3 million acres from large and medium irrigation schemes. More than half the increase in the area benefiting from minor irrigation occurred during the first two years of the plan. Considerable progress has been made in several States, notably, in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Punjab, Assam, Bombay, Madras and Mysore. The benefits of irrigation are realised to a greater extent when combined with the use of fertilisers. During the plan period the consumption of ammonium sulphate has more than doubled, from 275,000 tons before the plan began to 610,000 tons four years later. Special attention has been devoted to spreading the use of the `Japanese method' of rice cultivation, the area brought within its scope so far being about 1.6 million acres.
8. During the first four years of the first five year plan more than one million acres of land were reclaimed through the Central Tractor Organisation and 1.4 million acres through State tractor organisations. Besides this, about 5 million acres have been developed by cultivators through programmes such as assistance for mechanised cultivation, bunding and levelling and reclamation of land by manual labour. The extension of cultivation has been a larger con- tributory factor towards increase in production than had been anticipated when the plan was drawn up. Thus, the total cropped area has increased from 326 million acres before the plan to 352 million acres in 1954-55. The area under food crops has risen from 257 million to 272 million acres and under commercial crops from 49 million to about 60 million acres. The area under commercial crops has increased from 15 per cent of the total cropped area to 17 per cent, while the area under food crops has diminished from 79 to 77 per cent of the cropped area. The area under other crops (20 million acres) has shown little change.
APPROACH IN THE SECOND PLAN 9. During the first five year plan it was of crucial importance that agricultural programmes must succeed, for no other consideration had equal significance for the stability of the economy as a whole. In the second five year plan agricultural programmes are intended to provide adequate food to support the increased population and the raw materials needed for a growing industrial economy and also to make available larger exportable surpluses of agricultural commodities. The second five year plan implies, therefore, even more than the first a close interdependence between agricultural and industrial development. While formulating programmes to achieve these objects, it is necessary to take a long-term view so as to secure the best possible use of material and human resources, ensure balanced development between different branches of agriculture and create conditions for an appreciable increase in rural incomes and standards of living. In framing agricultural programmes it is essential, from the national point of view, to place before the villagers a goal which they should strive to attain. In connection with the preparation of the second five year plan it was stated that this goal should be the doubling, within a period of about ten years, of agricultural production, including food crops, oilseeds, cotton, sugar cane, plantation and other crops, animal husbandry products, etc.
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10. In relation to the food problem the factors to be considered are: (1) increase in the total population, (2) increase in the urban population, (3) the need to improve per capita consumption, (4) the need to counter possibilities of inflationary pressures resulting from the implementation of the second five year plan, and (5) effects on food consumption of increase in national income and changes in its distribution. The total food requirements in 1960-61 at the present rate of consumption will be 70.5 million tons. By the end of the second plan the rate of consumption is estimated to rise to 18.3 ounces per adult (cereals 15.5 ounces and gram and pulses 2.8 ounces), so that the total food requirements will be 75 million tons. The plan provides for increase in food production of 10 million tons over the next five years. In terms of calories the per adult consumption of food per day, which at present amounts to 2200, is expected to increase by 1960-61 to 2450 as against the minimum of 3000 calories recommended by nutrition experts.
11. Compared to many other countries the rate of cereal consumption in India is relatively high. This is because such energy producing foods as milk and milk products, fruit and vegetables, eggs, fish and meat are far from adequately represented in the common diet. Apart from the question of correct food habits, which is undoubtedly a matter of extreme importance, the output of each of these supplementary foods is at present grossly insufficient. During the second five year plan the aim will be to diversify agricultural production and to shift somewhat the emphasis which has been hitherto placed in a dominant degree on the production of cereal crops. The second plan also provides for programmes for increasing the production of crops like arecanut, coconut, lac, black pepper, cashewnut etc. which did not receive sufficient attention during the first plan.
12. The scope for increasing the area under cultivation is extremely limited. Such increase as may take place in the area under cultivation is likely to increase the production mainly of the coarser grains. As national income increases, there may be a general tendency for demand to shift from the coarser to the superior grains, especially to rice, wheat and maize. In the circumstances, the main source of increase in agricultural production must be increase in yields from more intensive, more efficient and more profitable agricultural production. Although the available data are not always comparable, there is little doubt that the average yields of principal crops like wheat and rice in India are considerably smaller than those current in several other countries. The crop cutting experiments which have been conducted in recent years in different parts of the country show large variations in the average yields of crops between different regions and even within each region. Crop competitions which have been carried on for some time past also afford an indication of levels which can be attained in Indian conditions when the necessary effort and assistance are forthcoming. It is now within the bounds of practical action to bring about a rapid and fairly widespread increase in agricultural yields. This requires more detailed and systematic planning in terms of regions, States, districts and project areas such as has not yet been undertaken. Data derived from crop competitions should be widely publicised, so that each area can set its goals in the light of established facts. To the extent necessary, the scope of crop competitions should be widened. What is required is riot merely the encouragement of high levels of achievement on the part of individual farmers, but a more comprehensive effort which would raise the general average in each area. Every part of the country should have targets of average production for different crops based on a broad classification of physical conditions of irrigation, rainfall, terrain, etc. In pursuance of these targets there should be programmes for raising levels of productivity which go down to individual villages and individual families.
13. Despite, the uncertainties to which agriculture is necessarily subject it is important that a more studied effort to introduce a planned approach to agricultural development should be made. The main elements in agricultural planning are:
(1) planning of land use;
(2) determination of targets, both long-term and short-term;
(3) linking up of development programmes and Government assistance to production targets and the land use plan, including allocation of fertilisers etc. according to plan; and
(4) an appropriate price policy.
Each district and, in particular, each national extension and community development project area should, have a carefully worked out agricultural plan. This should indicate for villages the targets to be aimed at, the broad distribution of land between different uses and the programme of development. Within the framework of an overall price policy such as has been outlined in an earlier chapter, such local plans will be valuable steps leading to more careful planning for States and regions and for the country as a whole. The crop pattern envisaged by these local plans has in the main to be influenced through such incentives as the provision of irrigation, credit and marketing facilities, provision of fertilisers, and intimate contact with the cultivator on the part of extension workers and especially the village level workers.
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These targets are in the nature of first estimates derived from calculations of the production potential expected to be added as a result of various developmental programmes. In view of the considerations outlined in paragraph 10 and especially the need to provide adequate safeguards against possibilities of inflation, it is considered that it is both necessary and possible to achieve higher agricultural targets with relatively small adjustments in regard to resources. In particular, through the national extension service it must be the aim to reach every village and every family and to organise supplies and services and short medium and long-term finance required for achieving these targets. With a view to fixing higher targets and ensuring their realisation, the Planning Commission and the Ministry of Food and Agriculture propose to undertake further study of agricultural programmes in each State and region with reference to its crop pattern, land and water resources and programmes of development in irrigation, national extension and other fields.
16. Foodgrains.-The target for foodgrains has already been referred to earlier. It is expected that of the increase of 10 million tons in foodgrains, rice may account for 3 to 4 million tons, wheat for 2 to 3 million tons, other cereals for 2 to 3 million tons and pulses for about 1.5 to 2 million tons.
17. Cotton.-To fulfil the textile targets for the second five year plan, the production of raw cotton has to be-raised from 4.2 million bales in 1955-56 to 5.5 million bales in 1960-61. Programmes for the cotton development will continue the measures undertaken during the first five year plan such as provision of hybrid seed, multiplication and distribution of improved seed, grant of loans to cultivators for the purchase of seed and fertiliser and extension and propaganda among the cotton cultivators. An important feature of development under the second plan will be the emphasis on increasing the production of long staple varieties particularly in the areas brought under major irrigation projects. The achievements made so far in increasing the production of long staple varieties have been significant and the proportion of these varieties had gone up from 17.5 per cent in 1948-49 to about 37 per cent in 1954-55.