5.7.3.2 The achievement of targets in the Plan, besides a favourable weather situation de- pends very much on the availability of irriga- tion facilities and fertilizer as well as other inputs As per present assessment, the targets of fertilizer consumption and irrigation fixed for 1992-93 and 1993-94 were not achieved. Taking into consideration the avail- ability of fertilizers as also its present level of consumption under given fertilizer scenario, no significant increase in fertilizer consump- tion is anticipated in the remaining two years of the Plan to reach to the targetted levels.
High Yielding Varities 5.7.4.1 The coverage under high yielding vari- ties (HYV) is given in table 5 -6.
5.7.4.2 The production and distribution of breeder, foundation and certified seeds have shown increasing trends as given below:
Evaluation of the Irrigation and
Fertilizer Scenario 5.7.5.1 Agricultural production represents complex picture with production as an out- come of several variables, such as the land brought under cultivation under different crop- ping systems, extent of irrigation, application of improved technologies of production of ag- ricultural commodities, particularly in terms of several key inputs, such as the use of im- proved seeds for achieving a varietal diversi- fication, nutrient management, pest management, etc. Of these, irriation and use of chemical fertilizers have played a major part in achieving incremental production. For the period 1980-81 to 1992-93, the annual corn- pound growth rate in foodgrains production of' 2.94% was largely derived by the improved productivity, which has shown ail annual com- pound growth rate of about 3.75%. Changes in productivity levels in the first three years of the Eighth Plan have not been marked, except ill the case of rice. However, the relative levels of productivity changes in the short time-frame of two to three years is not a good indicator. and this has to be seen as a part of time series.
5.7.5.2 Improved production, particularly by way of improved productivity, is essentially a reflection of levels of adoption of technology
179
Table 5-6
Area under High Yielding Varieties Targets and
Achievements of major cereals
(in lakh hectare)
Name of 8th Plan 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95
crop Target target Ach. Tar. Ach. Tar.
(1992-97)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1. Paddy 339.0 304.0 275.0 310.0 289.0 328.0
2. Wheat 238.0 230.0 217.0 228.0 220.0 233.0
3. Maize 38.0 28.0 26.0 35.0 27.0 29.0
4. Jowar 86.0 79.0 69.0 90.0 68.0 70.0
5. Bajra 66.0 59.0 56.0 69.0 51.0 62.0
6. Ragi 13.0 12.0 11.0 11.0 12.0 13.0
7. Total- HYV 780.0 712.0 654.0 743.0 666.0 735.0
and how widespread is the extent to which improved technologies have been adopted by farmers. While different elements of crop pro- duction technology have their own impor- tance, nevertheless these do get reflected in terms of increases in the gross cropped area, use of chemical fertilizers, etc. These are fa- ciilitated by the crucial element of the spread of irrigation. In fact, bulk of the production en- hancements are expected to arise from the increase in the gross cropped area, improve- ments in the irrigated area, and use of chemical fertilizers. Introduction and adoption of short- duration varieties of crops could enable raising of multiple crops Oven in the rainfed situation, with a second crop following the principal Kharif crop, based on residual moisture for sustaining the crop. It has, thereofre, been an important element of strategy to increase the gross cropped area even under rainfed condi- tions. Similarly, in the case of irrigated areas, achievement of a high order of cropping inten- sity is aimed at, while keeping in view the need for raising annual and perennial crops also under irrigated conditions for meeting societal demand for a diversified mix of agricultural commodites, such as sugarcane, fruits, etc. Improved productivity arises from varietal di- versifiaction, i.e. replacement of local varieties with improved varieties with high yield poten- tial and better response to applied inputs. To some extent, the use of fertilizers and nutrients has been taken as an indicator of the extent to which adoption of technologies are taking
Table 5-7
Production and Distribution of Seeds
Seed 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95
Anti.
Production of Breeder Seed 33.90 35.98 36.82 44.50
(000'Qtl.)
Production of Foundation 3.74 3.93 4.00 4.73
Seed (lakh Qtl.)
Distribution of Certified/ 57.50 60.33 61.00 65.00
Improved Seed (Lakh Qtl.)
180
place and incremental production is seen as a result of the response to fertilizer application in terms of additional production of agricul- tural commodities arising from incremental use of fertilizers. Therefore, changes in the Irrigation and Fertilizer scenario as a part of the implementation of the Eighth Plan are dis- cussed as critical elements of the agricultural development process in the following para- graphs.
Irrigation 5.8.1 The salient points of progress of irriga- tion and CAD are analysed below. The full details of irrigation and CAD are to be found in Section-II.
5.8.2 The financial performance in the Major & Medium, Minor Irrigation, CAD and Flood Control Sector during the first 3 years of the 8th Plan has been of the order of 47% against the prorata of about 60%. Apparently there has been substantial shortafall in the financial out- lays during the first 3 years of the Eighth Plan which needs to be made up in the balance two years of the Eighth Plan. So far as major & medium and minor irrigation programmes are concerned, the shortfall in the first 3 years has been of the order of Rs. 1,6 5 7 crore compared to the approved outlays in the corresponding period.
5.8.3 In case of major irrigation projects, there has been increase in the spill over cost of about Rs. 9500 crore during the first 3 years whereas allocation per annum is of the order of Rs. 3,000-3,500 crore per annum. Apparently sub- stantially higher outlays need to be provided for timely completion of major irrigation pro- jects as the present trend of provision of out- lays is able to meet only escalation in costs. Due to time and cost overruns, only 33% of the target of completion of 362 major & me- dium irrigation schemes could be achieved during the first 3 years of the 8th Plan.
5.8.4 The potential likely to be created during the first 3 years with respect to Eighth Plan target is only 43.3% against the pro-rate of about 60%. The shortfall in achievement was mainly due to inadequate funding by the States.
5.8.5 The percentage of outlay in the irrigation sector during the Fifth Plan with respect to all sectors was 23.25% which has declined to only 14.08% during 1994-95 (revised approved) against the Eighth Plan priority of 18.48% Hence there is need to have mid-course correc- tion in the funding policy to the irrigation projects. There is a need to have rigorous In- terse prioritisation of the projects as well as phased execution programme so as to derive optimal benefits from the investment to be made during the remaining period of the Eighth Five Year Plan. Adequate outlays need to be provided by the States in regard to exter- nally assisted project on the basis of the provi- sions in the agreement signed with the donor agencies. It may be worthwhile to mention that highest priority in funding was given by the States to schemes in advanced stages of con- struction where the expenditure is more than 75% of the estimated cost (the likely expendi- ture in first 3 years with respect to Eighth Plan outlays, is 73.3% for major and 77.85% for medium irrigation projects).
5.8.6 Regarding Command Area Develop- ment Programme, in most of the States, con- struction of field channels and Warabandi are, the only activities being undertaken by the CADA States . There is need to re-orient the programme so as to make it a more effective instrument for ensuring speedy transit to irri- gated agriculture and optimising water use ef- ficiency. There is urgent need for multi-disciplinary units to be set up by the States and to have detailed monitoring by the Centre as well as to provide incentives for formation of Water Users' Associations for turning over the irrigation systems to them initially below distributories/minors for at- tending to equity, adequacy and timeliness, effectively in providing irrigation to the bene- ficiaries on the one hand and reduce the estab- lishement cost on the other, It may be worthwhile to mention that the total coverage by water users association is only 0.33% so far Efforts have been initiated to take maximum advantage of on going crop oriented and re- lated schemes in the command areas of the irrigation projects already completed.
5.8.7 There is need for substantial step up in the outlays for modernisation of major & me- drum irrigation schemes in the remaining two years of the Eighth Plan so that the assets created are not lost for want of proper mainte- nance of the canal system, adequate fund is available for works and the available resource is not consumed only for paying salary to the staff.
5.8.8 Based on the presently estimated ulti- mate irrigation potential in the country region- wise present status of overall irrigation development shows that water resource devel-
181
opment in North-castern region through ma- jor, medium and minor schemes is only at the level of 32.77% whereas in the Northern Re- gion, it has reached about 97.87% (may vary when the ultimate potential figure through
This may, however, vary under different agro- climatic and management conditions for vari- ous crops.
Table 5-8
Fertilizers Consumption Target for the Eighth Plan
(lakh tonnes)
1. Nitrogeneous (N) 115.0
2. Phosphatic (P) 50.0
3. Potassic (K) 18.0
Total(N+P+K) 183.0
ground water is revised). This indicates a wide regional variation. The other region i.e.East- ern, Southern and Western are at the level of 62.15%, 69.21% and 56.82%, respectively which are progressing well.
5.8.9. It is estimated that total unrecovered costs on account of major and medium irriga- tion was increased more than 5 fold in a 10 year period from Rs.280 crore in 1977-78 to Rs. 1,525 crore in 1986-87. Most of the states have not revised the water rates since the mid 70s. Only three states namely Maharashtra, UP and Haryana have recently revised the water rates. A Group of officers was set up by the Planning Commission to examine the recom- mendations contained in the report of the Committee on Pricing of Irrigation Water (1992). The group has taken a view that water charges should be appropriately raised by the States so as to moot at least operation and maintenance costs of the projects in the next five years.
Fertilizers 5.9.1.1 Incremental use of fertilizers results into additional production. In case of food- grains generally this ratio is taken as 1:7.5.
Targets 5.9.1.2 Target of Consumption of Chemical Fertilizers in the 8th Plan are given in Table 5-8.
5.9.1.3 In the '80s, consumption of chemical fertilizers significantly increased from 51.6 lakh tonnes to 1 15.9 lakh tonnes registering a growth rate of 8.6% p.a.(between 1980/81 to 1989/90). During 1989-90 to 1991-92 the growth rate came down to about 5.0% and it further fell to 3.5% during the period 1991-92 to 1994-95. The actual consumption of fertil- izer which stood at 127.3 lakh tonnes in 1991 - 92 declined to 121.5 lakh tonnes in 1992-93 and is anticipated to increase to 140.6 lakh tonnes in 1994-95. The details of consumption chemical fertilisers during the Eighth Plan pe- riod are given in Table 5-9.
5.9.1.4 The decline in fertilizer consumption was mainly because of substantial rise in the prices of Phosphatic and potassic fertilizers. The estimated consumption of phosphate and potash nutrients during 1994-95 is 31 and 11 lakh tonnes respectively, was lower than the pre-control levels of 33.2 and 13.6 lakh tonnes attained in 1991-92, while the consumption of
Table 5-9
Consumption of Chemical Fertilizers
(in lakh Tonnes)
Fertilizer 8th Plan 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95
(anti)
Nitrogenous(N) 115.0 80.5 84.3 87.9 99.0
Phosphatic(P) 55.0 33.2 28.4 26.7 31.0
Potassic (K) 18.0 13.6 08.8 09.1 11.0
Total(N+P+K) 183.0 127.3 121.5 123.7 141.0
182
Nitrogen is estimated to have increased from 80.5 lakh tonnes to 99 lakh tonnes during this period, The gap between the controlled price of urea, and decontrolled prices of phosphatic and potassic fertilizers increased created im- balance in their use. Against the optimum N,P and K ratio of 4:2:1 and an actual ratio of 5.9:2.4:1 just before the decontrol, the ratio has now become adverse as 9.5:3. 1: 1. This imbal- ance in the use of different nutrients may have serious adverse implications for soil fertility and productivity. Urgent steps are called for to correct this imbalance in fertilizer use.
5.9.1.5 Slow release fertilizers increase the efficiency of fertilizer use. Increased manufac- ture and use of slow release fertilizers would be in the overall national interest and need to be encouraged through an appropriate package of incentives. Efforts need to be intensified to promote balanced and integrated use of fertil- izers and also to increase fertilizer consump- tion in low consumption rainfed areas. The Department of Agriculture & Cooperation has also proposed a Technology Mission on Bio- fertilizers to step up the use of bio-fertilizers through establishment of bio-fertilizer centres and programmes.
Capacity & production 5.9.1.6 Targets of Capacity and Production of Chemical Fertilizers for the Eighth Plan (1992- 97) are given in Table 5-10.
5.9.1.7 Potassic Fertilizers at 18.00 lakh tonnes are to be imported in 1996-97 as there is no indigenous capacity for production.
5.9.1.8 At the beginning of the Eighth Plan, the installed capacity of fertilizer was 82.4 lakh tonnes of Nitrogen and 27.52 lakh tonnes of Phosphate. The Eighth Plan envisaged an ad- ditional capacity of 27 lakh tonnes of Nitrogen and 4.5 to 5 lakh tonnes of phosphate. Against this, an additional capacity of only 9.54 lakh tonnes of Nitrogen and 0.72 lakh tonnes of phosphate has been created during the first three years of the plan. Thus, there is going to be a significant shortfall in the targetted capac- ity materialization.
Seed 5.9.2.1 In order to restructure and create nec- essary infrastructure for seed industry, Na- tional Seed Project Phase-III was launched in March, 1990 at a cost of Rs.236.01 crore with World Bank assistance. The main objectives of the Projects are:
(i) Assist public Sector Corporations through financial restructuring;
(ii) Enable private sector seed industry to es- tablish seed production(processing)fa- cilities;
(iii) To assist state agencies concerned with promotion of seed industries such as seed certification, quality control and produc- tion of foundation seed in state farms.
5.9.2.2 The project has assisted National and State Seed Corporation under various project component to strengthen and enhance their capabilities in seed sector. One issue of seed replacement rate is important from increasing area under improved seed. The desired seed replacement rate will have to be assessed in terms of crops or group of crops. Therefore. there is need for a fresh look at the manner in which we seek to promote achieving higher seed replacement rate. It has been argued that the supply push of certified seed could be a better method of ensuring larger off-take of the certified seed rather than providing flat rate of seed in respect of basic costs of the seed, seed replacement rate, etc. It is felt that the ICAR and DAC should have better linkages in this regard. The new Plant Variety Protection Rights would require to augment facilities to enable registration of varieties under the post- GATT period..