5.15 Manpower (1961). We must first explain briefly the manner in which these estimates have been made. The starting point in the preparation of these estimates is provided by the country's stock of educated manpower in 1961 (derived from the 1961 Census and a special tabulation of the National Sample Survey, 16th round), expressed in terms of workers with matriculate, intermediate and degree qualifications. This is shown in Table 5.1.
5.16 Broadly there were 5.2 million workers with qualifications equivalent to matriculation and above, two-thirds of them in towns and the rest in rural areas. Over half of these were employed in 'other' services (public administration, education and so on). About one in five of them (1.1 million) were also graduates, and these were even more heavily concentrated in the service occupations. Only some 100,000 were in manufacturing industries.
5.17 Future Requirements of Educated Manpower. The question we must ask is how these numbers may be required to grow in the future. How many matriculate and graduate workers should there be in 1976 and 1986 ? Two broad methods have been used to answer these questions, one for services, in which many educated people are employed, and one for the other sectors of the economy.
5.18 To take the latter first, it has been assumed that, as net output in each sector and in each branch of manufacturing industries increases, so proportionately will be the employment of educated manpower. The targets for economic growth assumed in these estimates, for the economy as a whole and for each sector, are those proposed by the Perspective Planning Division of the Planning Commission. The overall growth targets are 6.6 per cent a year from 1961 to 1976
5.19 ENROLMENT AND MANPOWER 171
TABLE 5.1. MATRICULATES, INTERMEDIATES, GRADUATES AND
TOTAL WORKERS, BY INDUSTRY: INDIA (1961)
(Thousands)
Industry group Below Matri- Inter- Gra- -Total
Matric culates mediates duates Workers
1. Agriculture 130,648 381 46 67 131,142
2. Mining, etc. 5,143 68 5 6 5,222
3. Manufacturing 19,377 436 89 104 20,006
4. Construction 1,911 99 30 19 2,059
5. Trade and Commerce 7,009 452 101 92 7,654
6. Transport and Commun-
ications 2,528 318 80 93 3,019
7. Services (Other) 16,895 1,509 405 765 19574
Public services 3,711 722 245 296 4,974
Educational services1,584 467 103 289 2,443
Medical and health
services 765 124 27 48 964
Religious and welfare
services 1,082 38 6 26 1,152
Legal services . 119 39 1 60 219
Business, trade,
labour association
Recreation, personal
and other services 9,443 81 18 37 9,579
____________________________________________________
TOTAL 183,511 3,262 756 1,147 188,676
(Percentage)
1. Agriculture 99.6 0.3 0.1 100.0
2. Mining, etc. 98.5 1.3 0.1 0.1 100.0
3. Manufacturing 96.9 2.2 0.4 0.5 100.0
4. Construction 92.8 4.8 1.5 0.9 100.0
5. Trade and Commerce 91.6 5.9 1.3 1.2 100.0
6. Transport and
Communications 83.7 10.5 2.7 3.1 100.0
7. Services (Other) . 86.3 7.7 2.1 3.9 100.0
--------------------------------------------------
TOTAL 97.3 1.7 0.4 0.6 100.0
Source. ISI/LSE Paper.
Note. The totals do not tally on account of rounding.
and 7.0 per cent for the whole period of 1961 to 1986. Within these overall targets, sectoral targets naturally vary-from 11.85 per cent (factory establishments including power supply) and 11.24 per cent (construction) to 3.86 per cent (agriculture) in the period 1961-76. Projecting the growth of output in each separately allows for shifts in patterns of employment and reveals demands for educated workers in fast-growing highly technical industries which would be lost in a simple overall growth rate.
5.19 Within services, each major service has been treated separately. In 1961, a quarter of employed matriculates and a similar proportion of employed graduates were in public administration and defence.
173
174 EDUCATION AND NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT 5.23
TABLE 5.3. ESTIMATES OF REQUIRED WORKERS, STOCK AND
OUT-TURN OF MATRICULATES AND ABOVE: INDIA (1960-61 to 1985-86)
Thousands Annual Growth Rate
1961 1976 1986 1961-76 1976-86 1961-86
Matriculates and above
Workers 5,164 16,612 32,554 8.1 7.0 7.7
Total stock 8,227 27,339 56,223 8.3 7.5 8.0
Out-turn of
matriculates 623 2,324 4,779 9.2 7.5 8.5
(6.8) (16.4) (27.4)
Intermediates and above
Workers 1,901 5,739 11,275 7.6 7.0 7.4
Total stock 2,755 8,515 17,464 7.8 7.6 7.6
Out-turn of
intermediates 240 749 1,537 7.9 7.5 7.7
(2.8) (5.6) (9.1)
Graduates and above
Workers 1,146 3,299 6,543 7.4 7.1 7.2
Total stock 1,510 4,433 9,082 7.5 7.4 7.5
Out-turn of
graduates 123 377 772 7.7 7.5 7.6
(1.5) (3.2) (4.9)
Source. ISI/LSE Paper.
N.B. Figures in parentheses indicate percentages of the population in the
corresponding age-groups.
5.23 On the other hand the proportion of those completing class VII who go on to be matriculates and graduates must fall. This is because of the very substantial expansion of numbers in class VII as the Constitutional Directive on free and compulsory education is implemented. If the transition proportions (that is, those matriculating and graduating as a percentage of those in class VII) remain fixed even when all children complete class VII, the stocks of educated manpower would be well in excess of manpower needs. This would become especially serious from mid-1970s onwards: by 1986 there would be 4 million 'too many' matriculates and 1.5 million too many graduates.
5.24 In addition to these estimates for workers with broad educa- tional levels, separate estimates have been made for engineers and agricultural graduates. These will be discussed elsewhere.*41 When graduates in engineering and agriculture are taken with those in medicine and teaching and related to the total stock of graduates, they form an increasing proportion-33 per cent in 1961, 43 per cent in 1976 and 46 per cent in 1986. Comparable changes are required at lower levels.
41* Chapters XII, XIV and XV.
5.25 ENROLMENT AND MANPOWER 175
5.25 Enrolments. The final stage in the calculation is to say what enrolments are implied by the out-turns required. This has been done on the basis of these observed relationships between enrolments and out-turns in 1960-61, allowance being made for our recommendations on the pattern of education, length of courses, wastages, etc. The net result is given in Table 5.4.
TABLE 5.4. ENROLMENTS PROPOSED (1960-61 to 1985-86)
(Thousands)
1960-61 1975-76 1985-86
Enrol- Passes Enrol- Passes Enrol- Passes
ments ments ments
Matriculation level
General : Classes
VIII/IX,IX/X, X/XI 3,582 585 12,324 2,324 23,630 4,779
Vocational (school)*1,2 119 48 361 135 738 278
TOTAL MATRICULATES 3,701 633 12,685 2,459 24,368 5,057
Intermediate level
General : Years 1 and 11
degree course' 597 208 ... ... ... ...
College (professional) 80 35 ... ... ... ...
TOTAL COLLEGE 677 243 2,176 749 4,460 1,537
School (vocational)
Engineering
Diploma 46 10 297 67 573 139
Others 181 42 701 151 1,438 310
Teacher Training*1,4
(all non-graduate) 123 75 453 211 402 169
TOTAL SCHOOL*1 350 127 1,451 429 2,413 618
TOTAL INTERMEDIATE 1,072 370 3,627 1,178 6,873 2,155
Undergraduate level
First degree :
Years I, II,
III and IV 822 96 ... ... ... ...
Professional*3 174 30 ... ... ... ...
TOTAL 996 126 3,038 377 6,216 772
TOTAL (ENROLMENTS IN*6
YEARS III, IV ONLY) 320 126 972 377 2,985 772
Source. ISI/LSE Paper.
Notes.
1 Not represented in the manpower data.
2 Including some teacher training, 1960-61 only.
3 First degree only (excluding degree in teaching and law).
4 Excluding courses at matriculate level in 1960-61.
5 Enrolment in Classes XI and/or XII and intermediate and equivalent classes.
6 In 1985-86 the enrolment figure is based upon three-year course and thus represents enrolments in Years III, IV and V.
176 EDUCATION AND NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT 5.26
EDUCATIONAL IMPLICATIONS OF THE ESTIMATES 5.26 We broadly accept these forecasts, subject to periodical revision, as a basis for a national enrolment policy and invite attention to the main conclusion they indicate with regard to future educational development. These are:
- to restrict the unplanned and uncontrolled expansion of general secondary and higher education, if massive educated unemployment is to be avoided;
- to make special and intensive efforts to vocationalize secondary education and to develop professional education at the university stage; and
- to devise suitable machinery, at both the national and State levels, which will relate the estimates of manpower needs effectively to the output of the educational system so that, by and large, there is some assurance that a suitably trained person would be available for every job to be done and every educated person would find a job appropriate for his education and professional training.
We shall now examine these conclusions briefly.
5.27 Admissions to Lower Secondary Education. In order to restrict unplanned and uncontrolled expansion of secondary and higher education, it is necessary to restrict the provision for places in accordance with manpower estimates and wherever the applicants for admission exceed the places, to make the admissions on a selective basis. At the lower secondary stage, however, which is to be regarded as completion of general education, emphasis should not be laid on ` selection' in the sense of admitting the 'fit' students and weeding out the 'unfit'. At this level, selection should be oriented more towards ` testing and guidance' than towards 'elimination'. Its main objective should be to enable a student to know his own level of achievement and his potentialities and to decide whether it would be in his interest to leave the school and enter the world of work, or to join a particular vocational course, or to continue in the stream of general education. In other words, ` selection' at this stage will be mostly 'self-selection' helped through a testing and guidance service. This service should be available to all schools in all areas, irrespective of the level of expansion of secondary education.*42 Whether a system of more rigorous selections is needed or not in a particular area is a matter for local decision and will depend upon the needs for manpower in the area and the level of expansion already reached.
42* The details about its organization are discussed in Chapter X.
5.29 ENROLMENT AND MANPOWER 177
5.28 Admissions to Higher Secondary and University Education. Beyond the lower secondary stage, a system of selective admissions becomes inescapable in view of the limited resources available. This idea is gaining much wider support but is still opposed on certain socio-economic grounds. It is argued, for instance, that this policy would adversely affect access to higher education of the backward classes, the rural areas and under-privileged groups now entering higher education for the first time. These fears have some Justification. But the remedy is not to be sought in the continuance of the present policy of open-door access. The under-privileged sections have a very small and disproportionate share in existing facilities in spite of the unrestricted admissions. This inequality would be removed more quickly, not by continuing the present laissez- faire policy, but by adopting positive measures to promote equalization of opportunities, such as the grant of scholarships on the 'school cluster' basis recommended elsewhere.*43 When such measures are provided on an adequate scale and it is clearly demonstrated that they increase the proportional enrolment of the backward or under-privileged groups in institutions of higher education, opposition to selective admissions will quickly diminish and even disappear. As a transitional measure, however, these fears may be allayed, if necessary, by adopting a suitable system of reservation of seats.
5.29 It is often argued that secondary and higher education should be given to all young persons who have completed primary and secondary education and cannot find jobs and it is further contended that such asylum for them is a lesser evil than leaving them on the streets. This is an escapist attitude, commonly observed in developing and labour-surplus societies, to over-educate young persons by regarding education as a substitute rather than as a preparation for work. In industrialized and labour deficit societies, job opportunities are so plentiful that many young persons remain in school largely because of compulsory laws. As soon as the compulsory age-limit is reached, a large proportion (varying from 30 to 75 per cent) leave school and take up employment. This helps also in improving standards in educational institutions, because resources are plentiful in relation to the number of places to be provided in post- compulsory education. In developing and labour-surplus economies, on the other band, employment opportunities are so poor that 'opportunity costs' of education are very low and young people join secondary schools or colleges either because there is nothing else to do, or in the pious hope that a job may be more readily available from the raised platform of a higher education. But as resources are limited and the number of seats to be provided
43* Chapter VI.
12
178 EDUCATION AND NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT 5.30
is larger, standards in secondary and higher education remain poor. The result, in some cases, is a negative rather than a positive contribution to individual and social life. We trust that decisive efforts will be made to check this tendency to use education as a substitute for employment.
5.30 Much of the opposition to a policy of selective admissions would disappear if good methods of selection were evolved. Existing methods of selection tend to be based on a rather rigid acceptance of examination marks. This approach finds popular support because of its apparent 'Justice', facility of administration, and because of a fear that any discretion given to individual institutions may lead to favouritism, nepotism, casteism or even corruption. But examination marks are an undependable measure of native talent or of potential growth. They are also socially unjust, being heavily weighted in favour of urban students and children from well-to-do homes and good schools. What is needed is a reliable method of selection which will take account of past performances, native talent and the principles of social justice. Educational research will have to be developed vigor- ously to discover such methods. Suggestions for reform of present methods are discussed later.*44
5.31 If enrolment in higher secondary and university education should be related to broadly determined national goals for trained manpower, two steps are needed. The first is to fix the number of places in university departments or colleges in advance, keeping in view the manpower needs and the facilities available; and the second is to make admissions to these places on a selective basis with due regard to the natural talents of the students, their achievements at earlier stages, and the principles of social justice. A policy of selective admissions is already being implemented, to a large extent, in courses in science, technology, medicine and agriculture and even in a fair number of institutions of general education which are anxious to maintain standards. The techniques of selection now in force will have to be improved on the lines indicated above. Moreover, it has now become urgent to ensure that the principle of selective admissions becomes the national policy for all courses and institutions of higher education, including courses in humanities and commerce and in the affiliated colleges.
5.32 Development of Vocational Education. Estimates of manpower needs also serve as a guide for the expansion of vocational education. We shall discuss specific vocational training, in engineering and agriculture, elsewhere.*45 For the present we are concerned with
44* Chapter XII. 45* Chapters XIV and XV.
5.37 ENROLMENT AND MANPOWER 179
the overall balance between general and vocational education at the secondary and higher levels.
5.33 At the lower secondary level, leading to matriculation, we must realize that the manpower data available give little guidance on the extent of vocationalization. Manpower needs are expressed in terms of matriculates only or in terms of pupils successfully completing courses of general education. Pupils in schools for technical or industrial education, arts and crafts training, or for music, dancing and other fine arts are not represented in the manpower data. How far these courses should expand and what new courses of a vocational or practical nature should be started are questions which can be answered only after further study. Our proposals on this subject will be discussed in the chapter on School Education.*46
5.34 At the higher secondary level, leading to intermediate or its equivalent, considerable guidance is given by the manpower forecasts. These suggest that by 1985-86 there should be 2,413,000 enrolments in vocational schools and perhaps 600,000 in vocational colleges out of total enrolments of 6,873,000. This is equivalent to 43 per cent of the total. Our proposals on this subject are discussed elsewhere.*47 We are of the view that vocational education at this level has to be emphasized. We have, therefore, assumed that enrolments in vocational courses at this level would be about 50 per cent of the total.
5.35 At the undergraduate level, forecasts of the need for specialists suggest some 833,000 enrolments in 1985-86, in engineering, agriculture and medicine. To this must be added the enrolments in degree courses in teaching and law. Our proposals on this subject are discussed elsewhere. *48
5.36 As stated earlier, the total enrolments needed as well as the percentages of enrolments in different sectors which are derived from manpower data are not highly precise. The central principle on which they have been calculated, i.e., the Tinbergen formula, is itself open to question on several counts. The calculations are further complicated by the difficulties inherent in the available statistical data. But all things considered, we believe that they do offer a broad guide to the order of magnitude involved and for the formulation of a national enrolment policy. But, as stated earlier, these will have to be continuously revised in the light of the experience gained, improved techniques discovered and availability of more refined data.
5.37 Three other points deserve notice. The first refers to financial feasibility. Forecasts of manpower needs on these lines give only a broad quantitative indication of the needed workers according to broad
46 & 47* Chapter VII. 48* Chapters XII, XIV and XV.
180 EDUCATION AND NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT 5.38
levels of educational attainment. But the education and training of the number of workers indicated at given levels of efficiency may require expenditure of an order which the economy will not be able to afford. It is, therefore, necessary to examine the financial implications of the manpower needs continuously. The maintenance of proper standards should always be ensured. But where the total cost of the proposals goes beyond the finances available, priorities will have to be determined and enforced.
5.38 The second is the availability of real resources to train the manpower needed. In a poor country, money is difficult to be raised, no doubt. But it is easier to raise money than to find the necessary real resources, i.e., teachers, equipment and buildings. It is much easier to create a post than to find a suitable person to hold it. In spite of funds being available, for instance, the shortage of staff in engineering institutions is of the order of 30 per cent or more. Equipment, particularly of foreign manufacture, is in short supply; and grants for buildings remain often unutilized because steel and cement are not available. It is therefore necessary to examine the forecasts of manpower needs continuously and plan for only that level of expansion which would be feasible in terms of real resources available. While every effort should be made to increase the allocation of real resources to education, it will be dangerous to expand facilities, in the absence of real resources, by diluting standards. In a situation of this type, hard choices about priorities will have to be made.
5.39 The third issue relates to utilization and the problem is similar to that of utilization of facilities which we discussed in Chapter II. When we think of increasing trained manpower, we should also think of the manner in which the existing trained manpower is being utilized. There is reason to believe that a fair proportion of our trained manpower is being under-utilized; and in some cases, it even remains unutilized. A continuous effort to study the problem is needed. To the extent we increase the utilization of existing trained manpower, there will be an immediate gain without further investment. It will also alter the forecasts for the future, either by reducing the numbers needed or by increasing the level of achievements.
5.40 Enrolments and Manpower. Table 5.5 shows the enrolment and manpower positions in 1961 and 1986. It will be seen that the total enrolments in education will be about quadrupled between 1960-61 and 1985-86 and increase from 46 million to 170 million. The enrolment of boys will increase to about three times from 32 million to 94 million and that of girls to about five and a half times-from 14 million to 76 million.
181
182
5.42 ENROLMENT AND MANPOWER 183
5.41 Educational Levels of the Working Force (1961-1986). The educational levels of the total working force during the same period (t961-1986) are given in Tables 5.6 A and B.
TABLE 5.6 (A). ESTIMATED TOTAL FUTURE EMPLOYMENT IN INDIA (1961-1986)
(Thousands)
Industry All Workers of age 15 and above
workers
1960-61 1960-61 1975-76 1985-86
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
1. Agriculture 135,444 123,817 144,462 144,462
2. Mining and manufacturing 20,927 19,202 40,696 63,861
3. Construction 2,059 1,992 6,653 9,273
4. Trade and commerce 7,654 7,500 12,135 18,764
5. Transport and communications 3,019 2,995 6,882 11,525
6. Services (Other) 19,572 18,697 32,906 45,210
TOTAL 188,675 174,203 243,734 293,095
Source. ISI/LSE Paper, Table No. 13.
It will be seen from Tables 5.6 A and B, that, in spite of all the expansion of education we visualize, the proportion of educated and trained manpower would still be small even in 1986. We hope that illiteracy would be liquidated by then; or at any rate, there would be no non-literate workers. The proportion of matriculates in the total working force will increase from 1.7 per cent in 1960-61 to 4.5 per cent in 1975-76 and still further to 7.3 per cent by 1985-86. During the same period, the proportion of intermediates in the working force will rise from 0.4 per cent to 1.6 per cent and that of graduates from 0.6 per cent to 2.2 per cent. The total of all educated workers (matriculates and above) will rise from 2.7 per cent in 1960-61 to just over 11 per cent by 1985-86. This has also been graphically represented in the chart on page 187.
5.42 It may be pointed out that even this projected achievement is much below the level already reached in industrialized countries. For instance, the educational level of the populations of the USA and Japan is as shown in Table 5.7.
184
5.44 ENROLMENT AND MANPOWER 185
TABLE 5.7. EDUCATIONAL LEVEL OF WORKING POPULATION IN
JAPAN AND USA
Japan
Composition of Population (age 15 and over) Composition of civilian labour force
(age 18-64) as on March 1959
Completed Percent Completed Per cent
Elementary school Elementary
(Class I-VI) 15.9 Less than 5 years 4.7
Junior high school
(Classes VII-IX) 44.8 5 to 8 years 24.2
Senior high school High School
(Classes X-XII) 24.7 1 to 3 years 20.3
4 years31.7
University or junior college 5.2 College
1 to 3 years9.4
4 years or more 9.7
Attending Schools 7.3
Never Attended Schools 2.2
Source. Population Census 1960. Source. Special Labour Force Report,
No. 53, Bureau of Labour Statistics, P. A-6.