RESOURCE REQUIREMENTS OF EDUCATION IN INDIA : IMPLICATIONS FOR THE TENTH FINANCE COMMISSION (SECONDARY EDUCATIONS)*
This study on Resource Requirements of Education in India: Implications for the Tenth Finance Commission was initiated at the instance of the Department of Education, Ministry of Human Resource Development, New Delhi. A preliminary draft focussing on the resource requirements for the elementary level of education is already brought out in March 1994 by J.B.G. Tilak and it provided information on: i) past trends in plan non-plan and total expenditure on education at current and constant prices for all levels of education; ii) projected expenditure on education based on past trends in plan, non-plan and total expenditure at current and constant prices for all levels of education; iii) past trends in per student expenditure at current and constant prices by levels of education; iv) projected enrolment trends at elementary levels based on the target of universalisation of elementary education by the year 2000 and the resource requirements, therein. The data base and projections were confined to 18 major states.
The present report is in continuation to the earlier report and it focusses on the resource requirements for the secondary level of education. The data source and methodology to project
* This part of the draft report has been prepared by N.V. Varghese with the statistical assistance of Dhirendra Kumar Kar at the National Institute of Educational Planning and Administration, New Delhi.
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expenditure are essentially the same as that was followed in the previous report. Hence, this report is to be seen as part 2 of the study.
Sources of Data Data on expenditure - plan and non-plan - on education in the states is based on:
Analysis of Budget Expenditure on Education, published by the Department of Education, Ministry of Human Resource Development and it is supplemented with published and unpublished data from the Department of Education, MHRD. The data on enrolment are collected from Education in India and Selected Educational Statistics. Both are regular publications of the Ministry. Data on SDP at current and constant prices is collected from National Accounts Statistics published by the Central Statistical Organisation.
Method of Estimation The report shows two types of estimations, namely, estimations on enrolment and estimations an total resource requirements. At the elementary level, projection of enrolment is based on the national target of universal elementary education by the year 2000. Unfortunately, no such targets are set for the secondary level of education.
The method adopted to project enrolment at the secondary level of education is as follows: we have actual enrolments for 12 years from 1980-81 onwards. We have worked out the ratio between enrolment at the primary and secondary levels for various sets of figures: (i) average of the ratios for 12 years (1980-81
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to 1991-92) as a whole; (iii) average of the ratios for the most recent 5 years, and (iv) average of the ratios for the most recent three years.
Based on the revealed pattern, it was clear that these ratios do change. However, the pattern was not same accross all the states. Based on the past trends it is assumed that these ratios will grow at the same rate as was revealed in the past ten years. Hence, the growth rate in the ratio between enrolment at the elementary and secondary level of education for the past ten years is taken as the basis to make projections for the remaining years of the nineties i.e. from 1992-93 to the year 1999-2000.
Enrolment to secondary level of education in the eighties showed erratic trends in many states. This is one of the reasons why we tried to estimate the average ratios for different blocks of years. However, in some states the trend showed negative growth rates. In case of such states average of the ratios for the past 12 years is taken as the basis to project enrolments in the remaining years of 1990s. States of Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Haryana belong to this category. Haryana data show an exceptional situation where ratio of enrolment at secondary level to that at elementary level is greater than one. This trend is consistent in the eighties and hence we have taken the 12 year average of the ratios to make projections.
This method of projecting enrolments may have its own limitations. However one of the positive points in its favour is the fact that enrolments to secondary level is not seen independent of enrolments to elementary level. It is presumed
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that even when changes in the ratio may not be considerable, the change in student numbers can be large if the goal of universalisation is of elementary education achieved. Given the recent focus on the elementary levels of education, it is expected that enrolment and retention at the elementary level will improve. Such improvements may be reasonably reflected in enrolments to secondary levels, if one follows this method.
Unit costs are estimated based on the simple equation
C = a+b(E)+e
Where C represents the unit costs, E the enrolments, a the intercept and b the regression coefficient and e the error term. Given the erratic pattern witnessed in the 1980s, the regression coefficient shows negative unit costs in some states. In such instances, growth rate in the decline of the per student expenditure is taken into account.
It is true that in many states, the enrolment at the secondary level has been increasing but allocation of resources are not commensurate with this trend. Hence the per student expenditure is declining. This is more so when per student expenditure is taken at constant prices. The non-plan expenditure shows a less erratic pattern than plan expenditure. Hence in case of certain states like Kerala only the total expenditure is estimated and plan and non-plan expenditure are not estimated separately.
All projected expenditure is at 1980-81 prices. Table 6.0 gives the ratios of enrolment at secondary level to enrolment at elementary level for different block years (12 years, 5 years and 3 years). The table also gives growth rate of the ratios for 10
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years and 5 years. This forms the basis to project enrolments in the nineties. As can be seen from the table, the growth rates are negative in case of states like Madhya Prades, Uttar Pradesh and Haryana. As we have already mentioned, in case of these states an average of ratios for the past 12 years is taken to project enrolment. Tables 6.1 onwards provide the state-wise projected enrolment and resource requirements (plan, non-plan and total) for all the years upto the year 2000.
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Table 6.0
Ratio of Enrolment at Secondary to Enrolment at Elementary Level
Average of Ratios. Growth Rate (%) of Ratios.
States 3 Years 5 Years 12 Years 5 Years 10 Years
Andhra Pradesh 0.36 0.35 0.33 4 2
Assam 0.26 0.26 0.27 1 1
Bihar 0.17 0.17 0.17 1 1
Gujarat 0.23 0.23 0.22 1 1
Haryana 1.29 1.31 1.26 -2 -0.4
Karnataka 0.23 0.23 0.20 3 3
Kerala 0.84 0.82 0.78 2 1
Madhya Pradesh 0.14 0.14 0.14 -2 -1
Maharashtra 0.61 0.58 0.50 4 4
Orissa 0.18 0.19 0.15 3 5
Punjab 0.68 0.65 0.57 6 4
Rajasthan 0.30 0.28 0.27 5 1
Tamilnadu 0.46 0.45 0.39 4 4
Uttar Pradesh 0.28 0.30 0.30 -4 -1
West Bengal 0.47 0.43 0.42 4 1
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Table 6.1
Estimate of Total Expenditure Requirements for
Secondary Education at 1980-81 prices.
( Rs in Crores). : Andhra Pradesh
Projected
Year Enrolments Plan Non-Plan Total
1992-93 3,280,831 17.63 162.31 179.94
1993-94 3,558,594 21.95 179.80 201.75
1994-95 3,859,872 27.13 199.43 226.57
1995-96 4,186,657 33.34 221.50 254.85
1996-97 4,541,109 40.77 246.36 287.13
1997-98 4,925,570 49.63 274.40 324.03
1998-99 5,342,579 60.21 306.07 366.28
1999-2000 5,794,894 72.80 341.92 414.72
Table 6.2
Estimate of Total Expenditure Requirements for
Secondary Education 1980-81 Prices .
(Rs in Crores ) . : Assam
Projected
Year Enrolments Plan Non-Plan Total
1992-93 1,210,765 12.91 45.66 58.57
1993-94 1,262,743 14.14 46.52 60.66
1994-95 1,316,952 15.47 47.32 62.79
1995-96 1,373,488 16.93 48.05 64.98
1996-97 1,432,451 18.52 48.70 67.22
1997-98 1,493,946 20.25 49.25 69.50
1998-99 1,558,080 22.14 49.69 71.83
1999-2000 1,624,968 24.20 50.00 74.20
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Table 6.3
Estimate of Total Expenditure Requirements for
Secondary Education 1980-81 Prices .
(Rs in Crores). : Bihar
Projected
Year Enrolments Plan Non-Plan Total
1992-93 1,938,404 4.28 119.53 123.80
1993-94 2,132,441 5.56 149.08 154.65
1994-95 2,345,901 7.16 185.30 192.45
1995-96 2,580,729 9.13 229.61 238.74
1996-97 2,839,063 11.56 283.78 295.34
1997-98 3,123,258 14.56 349.93 364.48
1998-99 3,435,900 18.24 430.63 448.87
1999-2000 3,779,838 22.76 529.01 551.77
Table 6.4
Estimate of Total Expenditure Requirements for
Secondary Education 1980-81 Prices .
(Rs in crores ) : Gujarat
Projected
Year Enrolments Plan Non-Plan Total
1992-93 1,788,539 2.86 165.69 168.54
1993-94 1,846,923 3.02 177.18 180.20
1994-95 1,907,213 3.19 189.45 192.64
1995-96 1,969,471 3.37 202.55 205.92
1996-97 2,033,762 3.57 216.54 220.11
1997-98 2,100,151 3.77 231.47 235.25
1998-99 2,168,708 3.99 247.42 251.41
1999-2000 2,239,502 4.22 264.44 268.66
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Table 6.5
Estimate of Total Expenditure Requirements for
Secondary Education 1980-81 Prices .
( Rs in Crores ) . : Haryana
Projected
Year Enrolments Plan Non-Plan Total
1992-93 1,960,801 8.35 77.70 86.05
1993-94 2,217,640 11.07 96.76 107.82
1994-95 2,508,122 14.59 120.78 135.38
1995-96 2,836,652 19.17 151.12 170.29
1996-97 3,208,216 25.08 189.49 214.57
1997-98 3,628,450 32.71 238.06 270.78
1998-99 4,103,729 42.56 299.63 342.20
1999-2000 4,641,263 55.26 377.75 433.01
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Table 6.8
Estimate of Total Expenditure Requirements for
Secondary Education 1980-81 Prices .
(Rs in Crores) . : Karnataka
Projected
Year Enrolments Plan Non-Plan Total
1992-93 1,763,835 9.03 117.10 126.13
1993-94 1,862,037 10.05 128.36 138.42
1994-95 1,965,705 11.20 140.79 151.99
1995-96 2,075,146 12.47 154.51 166.98
1996-97 2,190,679 13.88 169.68 183.56
1997-98 2,312,645 15.46 186.43 201.90
1998-99 2,441,401 17.22 204.96 222.18
1999-2000 2,577,325 19.18 225.45 244.63
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Table 6.9
Estimate of Total Expenditure Requirements for
Secondary Education 1980-81 Prices .
(Rs in Crores ) . : Kerala
Projected
Year Enrolments Plan Non-Plan Total
1992-93 2,884,281 309.95 309.95
1993-94 3,067,476 328.91 328.91
1994-95 3,262,306 349.07 349.07
1995-96 3,469,511 370.51 370.51
1996-97 3,689,877 393.31 393.31
1997-98 3,924,239 417.56 417.56
1998-99 4,173,487 443.35 443.35
1999-2000 4,438,565 470.78 470.78
Note : Per Student Plan Expenditure is -ve and hence estimates pertains to Non-Plan & Total.
Table 6.10
Estimate of Total Expenditure Requirements for
Secondary Education at 1970-71 Prices .
(Rs in Crores ) . : Madhya Pradesh
Projected
Year Enrolments Plan Non-Plan Total
1992-93 1,516,020 5.49 29.27 34.76
1993-94 1,572,352 5.94 29.00 34.95
1994-95 1,630,776 6.43 28.63 35.06
1995-96 1,691,371 6.96 28.12 35.09
1996-97 1,754,218 7.53 27.49 35.02
1997-98 1,819,400 8.15 26.70 34.85
1998-99 1,887,005 8.81 25.74 34.55
1999-2000 1,957,121 9.53 24.60 34.13
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Table 6.9
Estimate of Total Expenditure Requirements for
Secondary Education 1980-81 Prices .
(Rs in Crores ) . : Kerala
Projected
Year Enrolments Plan Non-Plan Total
1992-93 2,884,281 309.95 309.95
1993-94 3,067,476 328.91 328.91
1994-95 3,262,306 349.07 349.07
1995-96 3,469,511 370.51 370.51
1996-97 3,689,877 393.31 393.31
1997-98 3,924,239 417.56 417.56
1998-99 4,173,487 443.35 443.35
1999-2000 4,438,565 470.78 470.78
Note : Per Student Plan Expenditure is -ve and hence estimates pertains to Non-Plan & Total.
Table 6.10
Estimate of Total Expenditure Requirements for
Secondary Education at 1970-71 Prices .
(Rs in Crores ) . : Madhya Pradesh
Projected
Year Enrolments Plan Non-Plan Total
1992-93 1,516,020 5.49 29.27 34.76
1993-94 1,572,352 5.94 29.00 34.95
1994-95 1,630,776 6.43 28.63 35.06
1995-96 1,691,371 6.96 28.12 35.09
1996-97 1,754,218 7.53 27.49 35.02
1997-98 1,819,400 8.15 26.70 34.85
1998-99 1,887,005 8.81 25.74 34.55
1999-2000 1,957,121 9.53 24.60 34.13
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Table 6.13
Estimate of Total Expenditure Requirements for
Secondary Education at 1980-81 Prices .
(Rs in Crores ) . : Punjab
Projected
Year Enrolments Plan Non-Plan Total
1992-93 1,729,567 32.76 32.76
1993-94 1,927,560 0.44 48.57 49.01
1994-95 2,148,219 1.70 69.10 70.80
1995-96 2,394,137 3.39 95.61 99.00
1996-97 2,668,208 5.63 129.66 135.29
1997-98 2,973,652 8.59 173.19 181.78
1998-99 3,314,063 12.43 228.66 241.09
1999-2000 3,693,442 17.42 299.09 316.51
Note : Per student Plan Expenditure is -ve for the year 1992-93 so estimates pertains to Non -Plan & Total .
Table 6.14
Estimate of Total Expenditure Requirements for
Secondary Education at 1980-81 Prices .
(Rs in Crores ) . : Rajasthan
Projected
Year Enrolments Plan Non-Plan Total
1992-93 1,777,742 13.28 46.92 60.20
1993-94 1,930,324 16.36 52.18 68.54
1994-95 2,096,003 20.06 58.10 78.16
1995-96 2,275,902 24.48 64.79 89.27
1996-97 2,471,241 29.77 72.37 102.13
1997-98 2,683,346 36.08 80.95 117.03
1998-99 2,913,657 43.60 90.70 134.30
1999-2000 3,163,734 52.56 101.78 154.34