PROJECTIONS OF UNIVERSAL LITERACY
In a previous study (Sharma and Retherford, 1987), we estimated the number of decades it would take to attain universal literacy for India and States and Union Territories. Literacy rates were calculated for the entire population instead of the population aged 7 and over. It was assumed that children aged 5 and below were illiterate, and it was noted that population aged 5 and above con- stituted about 85 per cent of the total population. Therefore, for the purposes of projection, it was assumed that a literacy rate of 85 per cent constituted universal literacy.
The earlier projections were based on the observed trend in the literacy rate between 1971 and 1981 for each sex and for rural and urban separately, and it was assumed that the during each future decade the literacy rate would increase by an amount equal to the increase in the rate between 1971 and 1981. Thus, with L1 and L2 denoting the literacy rate in 1971 and 1981, respectively, the number of decades to achieve universal literacy was calculated as (85 - L2)/(L2 - L1). This methodology is crude, but it makes reasonable use of the limited data on literacy available from the 1971 and 1981 Censuses.
Because the definition of literacy changed slightly in the 1991 Census, encompassing population aged 7 and over instead of the entire population, we have modified the above methodology for purposes of projecting the number of decades required to attain universal literacy. We were able to recast the 1981 Census data in terms of the 1991 definition. Thus we are able to project literacy on the basis of comparable literacy data for persons aged 7 and over from both the 1981 and the 1991 Censuses. When the population aged 7 and over is considered, universal literacy is operationalized as 100 per cent rather than 85 per cent as in the previous study. Thus the formula for calculating the number of decades after 1991 needed to attain universal literacy is revised to (100 L2)/(L2 - L1), where L1 now refers to the literacy rate in 1981 and L2 refers to the literacy rate in 1991.
50 Literacy Trends in the 1980s in India
We have not attempted projections for rural and urban areas separately, because numerous reclassifications of rural areas as urban in the 1991 Census affect the rural and urban trends, and because the distortions become magnified when projected into the future.
To make the estimated number of decades comparable between the two studies, it was necessary to subtract one decade from the estimates from the earlier study, because the reference date in the earlier study was 1981 instead of 1991.
Results are shown in Table 25 and Figures 7 and 8. For India as a whole for both sexes combined, the estimated number of decades required to attain full literacy was 6.2 from the earlier study (labelled "old") and 5.6 from the present study (labelled "new"). By sex, comparable figures are 4.2 and 4.6 for males and 8.8 and 6.5 for females. These data indicate that the spread of literacy speeded up for females but slowed down slightly for males during 1981-91 as compared with 1971-81. However, because of the crudity of the projection method, these results must be viewed as somewhat tentative.
The projections vary a great deal by State and Union Territory. For males, the projected number of decades to attain universal literacy (new projections) ranges from 8.1 in Bihar to 1.1 in Lak- shadweep and Kerala. The States and Union Territories projected to take longer than the country as a whole to attain universal male literacy are Bihar, Meghalaya, Delhi, Chandigarh, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Dadra & Nagar Haveli. The States and Union Territories projected to take fewer than 2.5 decades to attain universal male literacy are Pondicherry, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Mizoram, Himachal Pradesh, Goa, Daman & Diu, Kerala and Lakshadweep.
For females, the projected number of decades to attainuniversal literacy ranges from 12.4 in Rajasthan to 1.3 in Kerala. The States and Union Territories projected to take longer than females in the country as a whole to attain universal female literacy are Rajasthan, Bihar, Dadra & Nagar Haveli, Uttar Pradesh, Chandigarh, Andhra Pradesh, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Meghalaya and
Projections of Universal Literacy 51
Orissa. The States and Union Territories projected to take fewer than three decades to attain universal female literacy are Pondicherry, Goa, Sikkim, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Mizoram, Ladkshadweep and Kerala.
Table 26 groups the States and Union Territories into four categories, based on how the literacy improvement between 1971 and 1981 compares with the literacy improvement between 1981 and 1991 (numbers are taken from the "Diff." columns of Table 25). The States and Union Territories within each category are arranged in order of decreasing magnitude of the number of decades required to attain universal female literacy.
There are eleven States and Union Territories in which the improvement in the literacy rate was greater for 1981-91 than for 1971-81 for both males and females. Within this category, Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar show substantially lower literacy rates for females than for males, despite a greater increase in the female literacy rate during 1981-91 than during 1971-81.
There are ten States and Union Territories in which the im- provement in the literacy rate was greater for 1981-91 than for 1971- 81 for females but not for males. Within this category, Bihar and Orissa still had female literacy rates below 35.0 per cent in 1991, despite a greater increase in the literacy rate during 1981-91 than during 1971-81. For males in the States and Union Territories in this category, the decadal increase in literacy was less during 1981-91 than during 1971-81, so that the projected time required to achieve universal male literacy in these States and Union Territories increased by more than two decades. There was only one Union Territory, namely Chandigarh, where the improvement in the literacy rate was greater during 1981-91 than for 1971-81 for males but not for females. And there were eight States and Union Territories in which the improvement in the literacy rate was slower during 1981-91 than during 1971-81 for both males and females.
Despite considerable governmental and non-governmental efforts to expand educational opportunity and literacy during the past decade, the projections based on the 1981-91 trend in literacy still indicate that the achievement of universal literacy for India as a whole, for both sexes combined, still lies more than half a
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54 Literacy Trends in the 1980s in India
Table 26: Distribution of States and Union Territories (excluding Assam
and Jammu & Kashmir) according to the pace of Improvement
In literacy between 1981 and 1991
State/Union Territory Difference between New and Old
projections (from Table 25)
Males Females
1 2 3
States and Union Territories in which the improvement in the literacy
rate was greater during 1981-91 than during 1971-81 for both males
and females
1. Rajasthan -1.0 -11.5
2. Uttar Pradesh -0.1 -10.1
3. Madhya Pradesh -1.5 -6.8
4. Andhra Pradesh -1.1 -5.0
5. Arunachal Pradesh -1.0 -4.2
6. Karnataka -0.2 -2.6
7. Meghalaya -4.2 -1.8
8. Punjab -1.3 -1.0
9. Mizoram -1.9 -0.6
10. Lakshadweep -0.2 -0.4
11. Andaman & Nicobar Islands -0.3 -0.1
States and Union Territories in which the improvement in the literacy
rate was greater during 1981-91 than during 1971-81 for both males
not for males
1. Haryana +0.5 -3.1
2. Bihar +2.8 -1.5
3. Gujarat +0.5 -1.0
4. Orissa +2.3 -1.0
5. West Bengal +0.7 -0.9
6. Sikkim +1.5 -0.9
7. Manipur +0.4 -0.8
8. Maharashtra +1.0 -0.8
9. Tamil Nadu +1.5 -0.7
10. Himachal Pradesh 0.0 -0.5
States and Union Territories in which the improvement in the literacy
rate was greater during 1981-91 than during 1971-81 for males but
not for females
1. Chandigarh -1.2 +4.9
States and Union Territories in which the improvement in the literacy
rate was less during 1981-91 than during 1971-81 for both males
and females
1. Dadra & Nagar Haveli +2.8 +4.4
2. Delhi +4.1 +2.5
3. Goa +1.4 +0.9
4. Nagaland +2.3 +0.8
5. Kerala +1.0 +0.6
6. Tripura +1.3 +0.4
7. Pondicherry +1.3 +0.2
8. Daman & Diu +0.8 +0.2
Projections of Universal Literacy 55
century in the future. It is projected it will take approximately two decades longer to achieve universal female literacy than universal male literacy. However, these are projections, not certainties. If the Government continues to accelerate progress in this area, the goal of universal literacy may be attained sooner than projected.