 THE CHALLENGE FOR THE YEAR 2000

Reducing illiteracy

The estimated 948 million illiterate adults in the world bear witness to the past failures to provide Education for All. However, UNESCO estimates that if present trends continue, the number of illiterate men and women will actually drop during the 1990s to about 935 million by the end of the century. This decline will mainly be due to progress achieved in East Asia, including China, and to a smaller degree, Latin America and the Caribbean. But in all other parts of the developing world, there will be more illiterates in the year 2000 than today. Nearly two-thirds of the world's illiterates will continue to be women, although the number of illiterate women in South Asia will drop by 15 million to about 278 million by the year 2000.

The geography of illiteracy

Three-quarters of the world's illiterates live in only ten countries: India, China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Indonesia, Brazil, Egypt, the Islamic Rep. of Iran and Sudan. If Education for All is to be achieved, a breakthrough must take place in these key countries. What do they have in common? They share a number of challenges due to their physical size, and huge populations, and vast rural and remote areas. Many have considerable cultural and linguistic diversity. But developments in science and technology, coupled with these countries' inherent economic potential, present dramatic opportunities to meet the challenges.

Over the past ten years Indonesia and Iran made most headway in literacy as both the male and female literacy rates increased con- siderably between 1980 and 1990. All ten countries report a higher

literacy rate for men than for women. This is most pronounced in Sudan, Pakistan, India and Bangladesh, while Brazil and Indonesia have managed to narrow the literacy gap between men and women. Pakistan, India and Bangladesh also succeeded in increasing both the male and female literacy rates considerably, but without alleviating the gender disparity. Egypt and Sudan made small progress, mainly in boosting the female literacy rate.

Gender disparity: focus on women

Women are the main victims of illiteracy. one out of three adult women in the world today cannot read and write, compared with one out of five adult males. In sub-Saharan Africa, the Arab States and South Asia, two out of three women are illiterate. While adult literacy rates are expected to rise by the year 2000 when some 85 per cent of all men and some 72 per cent of all women may be literate, the female illiteracy disadvantage will not just "go away" in the course of general educational development. In East Asia and Oceania, for example, UNESCO projections show that the gap between male and female literacy will persist even as the literacy level in general increases. Unless the world community targets female illiteracy, this gender gap will continue well into the next century. Efforts should be concentrated in South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and the Arab States, which currently account for more than 400 million illiterate women.

Reaching the excluded children

Although primary schooling for children is compulsory in most countries, some 128 million children, or 20 per cent of the school-age population, are excluded from primary education at present. Most of them are in South Asia and in sub-Saharan Africa.

Who are the "missing children"? Most live in remote rural areas or in urban slums. Most are girls. Most belong to population groups outside the mainstream of society: they pass their days in overcrowded refugee camps, displaced by manmade or natural disasters, or wander with their herds. Often marginalized by language, life-style and culture, they do not enjoy a basic human right - the right to education.

If no breakthrough is achieved, the number of children excluded from primary schooling may rise to 162 million by the turn of the century. Some fifty-two million will be in sub-Saharan Africa and 72 million in South Asia.

If no breakthrough is achieved, the number of children excluded from primary schooling may rise to 162 million by the turn of the century

Easing the demographic pressure

In the developing world, the educational progress of the past two to three decades has been achieved despite high fertility and population growth rates. But a new trend is developing. Today fertility rates are declining in most countries, partly due to the increasing educational level of women. As a consequence, the primary school-age population is growing at a slower rate than the rest of the population.

Today fertility rates are declining in most countries, partly due to the increasing educational level of women

In many of the world's largest countries the trend toward fewer children is unmistakable. In India, for example, where total population will increase by 2.2 per cent annually this decade, the number of children who need a place in school will grow by only 1.6 per cent per year. In Indonesia, the growth rate of school-age children will be only 0.5 per cent per year, in Bangladesh 1.9 per cent, in Mexico 0.8 per cent, Brazil 1.1 per cent and Egypt 0.8 per cent. The overall populations in these countries will grow at least 1 or 2 per cent faster per year due to gains in life expectancy.

Only in two regions do the prospects look gloomy: sub-Saharan Africa and East Asia. There, the school-age population will grow more rapidly than the total population during the present decade. Thus, the "school-dependency ratio" (the school-age population as a proportion of the total population) will either stay the same or show a slight increase.

Universalizing primary education

Since the 1960s, universal primary education (UPE) has been an almost mythical target when countries and regions have mapped out education strategies. The Jomtien Conference did not abandon that goal, but added a new dimension: the "expanded vision" of Jomtien goes beyond formal schooling to encompass both non-formal educational activities (such as learning at home and in community groups), adult literacy and "life-skills" with immediate relevance to health, employment and other needs.

Providing all school-age children with a place in primary school by the year 2000 remains a major challenge, even in those developing countries that already report net enrolment ratios above 80 per cent. Universal primary education by the year 2000 calls for school buildings, teachers and instructional materials for an additional 233 million school-age pupils. At least part of this additional accommodation already exists, but it is being used, to a large extent, by the millions of over-age and under-age pupils. It is estimated that in 1990, some 373 million boys and girls of primary school age (usually 6-11) had to share scarce school resources with some 118 million pupils who were outside the official school age. This has led to overcrowded schools, poorly maintained or absent school buildings and over-stretched teachers. For many developing countries, reaching UPE will require creating more school places and reducing repetition so that children move through the system at a "normal pace". If this is done, the effort to provide a place in school for all school-age children will be less daunting, at least in countries where gross enrolment ratios are already close to or beyond 90 per cent, notably in Latin America or East Asia.

UPE by 2000 requires buildings, teachers and materials for 233 million additional pupils

In Sub-Saharan Africa, the stakes are much higher: a total of 112 million school places will be needed for UPE by the year 2000, compared with a gross enrolment of 56 million and net enrolment of only 43 million in 1990. Obviously sub-Saharan Africa will need major outside assistance to be able to meet the challenge of UPE.

Needed: 4 million new primary teachers

If UPE is to be achieved by the year 2000, some 20 million primary teachers will be needed in the developing regions, which means 4 million more than today. in particular, more women teachers will be needed if girls are to have a fair chance in schooling. Numerous studies indicate that girls in developing countries learn better and stay in school longer when their teachers are women. However, increasing the number of teachers will be difficult because teachers' salaries already constitute up to 90 per cent of recurrent education budgets in most countries. Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia face the most difficult task of recruiting and training new teachers.